6 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Lokomotiv vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

RZD Arena, Moscow
Referee: Inal Tanashev
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Lokomotiv 0-1 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Lokomotiv, 28% draw, 27% Rubin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv0%Draw5%Rubin95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Sergey Pinyaevout: Zelimkhan Bakaev
45'
🔁Danila Godyaevout: Aleksandr Rudenko
45'
54'
Ilya Samoshnikov
61'
Egor Teslenko
63'
🔁Veldin Hodzaout: Bogdan Jočić
71'
⚽Egor Teslenkoassist: Ulvi Babaev
74'
🔁Ulvi Babaevout: Ilya Rozhkov
🔁Lucas Fassonout: Vadim Rakov
78'
🔁Sergey Babkinout: Aleksandr Kovalenko
78'
90+1'
🔁Eddie Salcedoout: Jakhongir Urozov
90+1'
🔁Ignacio Saavedraout: Jacques Siwe
Nikolay Komlichenko
90+3'

Match stats — Lokomotiv vs Rubin

62%Possession38%
11Shots26
4On target6
6Corners7
0.79xG2.29

Goals against chances

Lokomotiv0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth
Rubin1 from 2.29 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lokomotiv 5-4-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 45A. SiljanovD
  • 85E. MorozovD
  • 14G. DzhikiyaD
  • 3Lucas FassonD
  • 47D. GodyaevD
  • 9S. PinyaevM
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 77A. MostovoyM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 74D. ChevardinD
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 8A. KovalenkoM
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 99R. MyalkovskiyF
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 5G. NyamsiD
  • 11V. RakovF
Coach: M. Galaktionov
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 71I. SamoshnikovD
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 7U. BabaevM
  • 10E. SalcedoF
Substitutes
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 43J. SiweF
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 59D. N. MotorinF
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 44D. KuznetsovM
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 70D. KabutovD
Coach: Oleg Kuzmin

Form going into Lokomotiv vs Rubin

Lokomotiv

Premier League

  • L0-4Spartak Moscow1 November 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Rostov25 October 2026
  • D3-3FC Krasnodar17 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026

Rubin

Premier League

  • W1-0Fakel31 October 2026
  • L0-2Krylia Sovetov24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Spartak Moscow18 October 2026
  • L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Lokomotiv failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lokomotiv conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Lokomotiv had three goals or more.
  • Rubin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rubin failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rubin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Lokomotiv142571621-511
8Rubin144641418-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Rubin

  • 18 July 2026Lokomotiv 1–3 RubinFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 March 2026Rubin 3–0 LokomotivPremier League
  • 27 September 2025Lokomotiv 1–0 RubinPremier League
  • 12 April 2025Rubin 1–0 LokomotivPremier League
  • 2 November 2024Lokomotiv 1–0 RubinPremier League
  • 13 July 2024Lokomotiv 3–4 RubinFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Rubin

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

Rubin

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rubin won 1–0 at Lokomotiv. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv at 45% and given a win for Rubin 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Egor Teslenko 71' for Rubin. On expected goals it finished 0.79–2.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lokomotiv a 25.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 18.0% after a win, 29.6% after a draw, 35.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 9.6 points higher than before the match.

For Rubin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 32.4% going in: 19.7% after a win, 32.0% after a draw, 37.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.7%, 12.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lokomotiv v Rubin has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Lokomotiv win45%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Rubin win27%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.