FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Ingolstadt 04 3-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% FC Ingolstadt 04, 31% draw, 25% Fortuna Düsseldorf — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Ingolstadt 04 at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Line-ups
- 47D. KleinG
- 15J. ScholzD
- 34L. FrödeD
- 32S. LorenzD
- 41V. ŠapinaM
- 19L. RosenlöcherM
- 28N. VelupillayM
- 8F. CarlsenM
- 14Max PlathF
- 17O. UgonduF
- 5Emre GülF
- 4Elias DeckerD
- 6G. AntzoulasD
- 16J. GandaF
- 37B. KanurićM
- 20Y. DeichmannD
- 10D. KayginM
- 18K. BennettsM
- 1M. PonathG
- 33D. SekulovicD
- 22L. LordG
- 25M. ZimmermannD
- 15T. OberdorfD
- 44E .EgouliD
- 28S. RischD
- 10P. FörsterM
- 38E. ArdenM
- 8J. HendrixM
- 23F. GerezgiherF
- 9E. HottmannF
- 7E. WekesserF
- 40H. AnhariM
- 39K. AmaniampongD
- 16M. BengerM
- 4L. BornscheinD
- 5Y. BouchamaM
- 1L. RießG
- 29K. SauckM
- 24F. SchleusenerF
- 2S. van der SlootD
Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
FC Ingolstadt 04
3. Liga
- D1-1away to Havelse31 October 2026
- W2-1MSV Duisburg24 October 2026
- W1-0Rot-Weiß Essen17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3. Liga
- D0-0SV Meppen30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hansa Rostock24 October 2026
- L1-3FC Saarbrücken17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Ingolstadt 04 went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 21 |
| 13 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 6 March 2022Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
- 25 September 2021FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 12 September 2020FC Ingolstadt 04 0–1 Fortuna DusseldorfDFB Pokal
- 22 April 2018Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
- 19 November 2017FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 17 April 2015FC Ingolstadt 04 3–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf
FC Ingolstadt 04
GoalsAssists
- O. Ugondu40
Fortuna Düsseldorf
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–2. The model had made a win for FC Ingolstadt 04 its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Filimon Gerezgiher 9' for Fortuna Düsseldorf, Eric Hottmann 18' for Fortuna Düsseldorf, Simon Lorenz 38' for FC Ingolstadt 04, Obed Chidindu Ugondu 63' for FC Ingolstadt 04, Frederik Carlsen 84' for FC Ingolstadt 04.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Ingolstadt 04 a 9.8% chance to finish in the top three: 12.1% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.1%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Fortuna Düsseldorf the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 14.7% going in: 9.5% after a win, 13.2% after a draw, 17.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.