7 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln 3. Liga prediction & result

Carl-Benz Stadion, Mannheim
Referee: Davina Lutz
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Waldhof Mannheim 2-1 Fortuna Köln.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Waldhof Mannheim, 31% draw, 22% Fortuna Köln — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Waldhof Mannheim at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Waldhof Mannheim4%Draw94%Fortuna Köln2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
Seymour Fünger
⚽Terrence Boydassist: Julian Rieckmann
29'
32'
⚽Romeo Aigbekaenassist: Bennit Bröger
Gonçalo Gregório
53'
🔁Lovis Frederik Bierschenkout: Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba
62'
🔁Gonçalo Gregórioout: Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa Pessoa
62'
🔁Maximilian Thalhammerout: Julian Ulbricht
62'
68'
Jannik Mause
69'
🔁Cedric Harenbrockout: Tom Geerkens
69'
🔁Georg Strauchout: Adrian Stanilewicz
76'
🔁Jannik Mauseout: Timo Bornemann
🔁Vincent Thillout: Denis Kryeziu
78'
🔁Oluwaseun Ogbemudiaout: Djayson Eduardo Cardoso Mendes
78'
⚽Julian Ulbricht (pen)
90+2'

Match stats — Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln

56%Possession44%
16Shots6
10On target3
7Corners2

Line-ups

Waldhof Mannheim 4-4-2
  • 1T. NijhuisG
  • 24L. KlünterD
  • 15C. KammerknechtD
  • 14Oluwaseun God Power Osaro OgbemudiaD
  • 25Jid OkekeD
  • 7L. BierschenkM
  • 21J. RieckmannM
  • 8M. ThalhammerM
  • 12V. ThillM
  • 13T. BoydF
  • 9Gonçalo GregórioF
Substitutes
  • 35Djayson CardosoM
  • 11Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa PessoaF
  • 22D. KryeziuM
  • 23L. MickelsM
  • 29N. X. Muteba NTumbaF
  • 16J. NiemannG
  • 3Moritz PolteD
  • 10J. UlbrichtF
  • 42David ZimmerG
Coach: Rui Mota
Fortuna Köln 4-4-2
  • 25B. ZichG
  • 2Kevin KrummeD
  • 11G. StrauchD
  • 5Seymour FungerD
  • 3M. FischerD
  • 17F. HeisterM
  • 38Bennit BrögerM
  • 15David Haider Kamm Al-AzzaweM
  • 14C. HarenbrockM
  • 37J. MauseF
  • 30Romeo AigbekaenF
Substitutes
  • 7N. ThierM
  • 31Neo TelleD
  • 33Lennart StollenwerkG
  • 20A. StanilewiczM
  • 23D. SavicM
  • 6T. GeerkensM
  • 19T. BornemannF
  • 18H. Al GhaddiouiF
  • 22R. AfamefunaD
Coach: M. Mink

Form going into Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln

Waldhof Mannheim

3. Liga

  • L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken1 November 2026
  • W4-1Hoffenheim II25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Würzburger Kickers17 October 2026
  • L0-3FC Ingolstadt 0414 October 2026

Fortuna Köln

3. Liga

  • L1-2Würzburger Kickers31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Preußen Münster25 October 2026
  • L0-1Stuttgart II16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Waldhof Mannheim conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Waldhof Mannheim failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Waldhof Mannheim had three goals or more.
  • Fortuna Köln did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Fortuna Köln conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Fortuna Köln failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Waldhof Mannheim136162320+319
19Fortuna Köln132471016-610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Waldhof Mannheim and Fortuna Köln

Waldhof Mannheim

GoalsAssists

  • J. Ulbricht42
  • T. Boyd41

Fortuna Köln

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Waldhof Mannheim beat Fortuna Köln 2–1. The model had made a win for Waldhof Mannheim its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Terrence Boyd 29' for Waldhof Mannheim, Romeo Aigbekaen 32' for Fortuna Köln, Julian Ulbricht (penalty) 90+2' for Waldhof Mannheim.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Waldhof Mannheim a 15.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 11.1% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 21.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.1%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

For Fortuna Köln the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 72.7% going in: 63.4% after a win, 71.4% after a draw, 77.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.5%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Waldhof Mannheim v Fortuna Köln has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 31% / 22%: the biggest move is Waldhof Mannheim's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Waldhof Mannheim win47%▲ +5
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Fortuna Köln win22%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.