1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 Super League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Lugano 2-1 FC Basel 1893.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% FC Lugano, 19% draw, 11% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Lugano at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Lugano98%Draw2%FC Basel 18930%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daniel Dos Santos Correiaassist: Uran Bislimi
10'
16'
Philip Otele
Uran Bislimi
16'
🔁Dereck Moncadaout: Beckham Castro
21'
⚽Yanis Cimignaniassist: Antonios Papadopoulos
26'
37'
⚽Philip Oteleassist: Žan Celar
44'
Becir Omeragic
45'
Xherdan Shaqiri
🔁Hannes Delcroixout: Joel Bichsel
51'
53'
🔁Clément Michelinout: Kevin Ruegg
Mattia Zanotti
57'
65'
🔁Xherdan Shaqiriout: Asane Sow
65'
🔁Žan Celarout: giacomo koloto
🔁Kevin Behrensout: Albian Ajeti
73'
🔁Beckham Castroout: Behruzjon Karimov
73'
🔁Daniel Dos Santos Correiaout: Elias Pihlstrom
75'
76'
Abemly Meto Silu Metinho
80'
🔁Moussa Cisseout: Coleen Louis
80'
🔁Ludwig Thorellout: Jonas harder
Lars Lukas Mai
90+2'

Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

37%Possession63%
12Shots21
7On target5
6Corners6
0.97xG0.95

Goals against chances

FC Lugano2 from 0.97 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Basel 18931 from 0.95 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-1-4-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 8A. GrgićM
  • 46M. ZanottiM
  • 25U. BislimiM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 30D. MoncadaF
  • 91K. BehrensF
Substitutes
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 24E. PihlströmF
  • 9A. AjetiF
  • 7E. AlioskiD
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 22B. CastroF
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 2B. KarimovD
  • 4D. KelvinD
Coach: M. Croci-Torti
FC Basel 1893 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. OmlinG
  • 22C. MichelinD
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 29M. CisséD
  • 4B. OmeragićM
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 10X. ShaqiriM
  • 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
  • 7P. OteleM
  • 9Ž. CelarF
Substitutes
  • 49Renato Widmer D’AutiliaG
  • 14A. BačaninM
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 37G. KolotoF
  • 25C. LouisD
  • 27K. RüeggD
  • 18A. SowF
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
  • 3N. VouillozD
Coach: S. Jokanović

Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

FC Lugano

Super League

  • W3-2away to FC Thun25 October 2026
  • W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026

FC Basel 1893

Super League

  • D0-0Grasshoppers25 October 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Vaduz11 October 2026
  • L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Lugano1311113615+2134
7FC Basel 1893134362125-415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

  • 6 September 2026FC Basel 1893 1–3 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 17 May 2026FC Lugano 4–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 15 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 9 November 2025FC Basel 1893 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 10 August 2025FC Lugano 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 10 May 2025FC Lugano 2–5 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • Daniel Dos Santos51
  • D. Moncada51
  • Y. Cimignani40

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano beat FC Basel 1893 2–1. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 70%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Daniel Dos Santos Correia 10' for FC Lugano, Yanis Cimignani 26' for FC Lugano, Philip Otele 37' for FC Basel 1893. On expected goals it finished 0.97–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Lugano a 90.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 91.8% after a win, 86.4% after a draw, 81.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.8%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For FC Basel 1893 the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 33.0% going in: 51.1% after a win, 37.4% after a draw, 29.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.9%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.