1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Lausanne vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result

Stade de la Tuiliere, Lausanne
Full time4 – 5

Final score: Lausanne 4-5 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Lausanne, 26% draw, 42% FC Thun — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Thun at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lausanne4%Draw91%FC Thun5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Olivier Mambwa
12'
⚽Furkan Dursunassist: Brighton Labeau
Morgan Poaty
27'
•Abdou Karim Sow
30'
•Enzo Molebe
32'
⚽Omar Janneh (pen)
36'
⚽Omar Janneh
45+1'
45'
🔁Olivier Mambwaout: Lucien Dähler
⚽Enzo Molebeassist: Nathan Butler-Oyedeji
53'
61'
🔁Furkan Dursunout: Riccardo Braschi
61'
🔁Patrik Kristalout: Nico Maier
🔁Morgan Poatyout: Dircssi Ngonzo
62'
⚽Lucien Dähler (OG)
62'
67'
🔁Nassim Zoukitout: Justin·Roth
70'
⚽Brighton Labeau
🔁Omar Jannehout: Seydou Traore
72'
🔁Olivier Custodioout: Papa Souleymane N'Diaye
72'
76'
🔁Nils·Reichmuthout: Noah Christoffersson
81'
⚽Riccardo Braschiassist: Noah Christoffersson
86'
⚽Abdou Karim Sow (OG)
🔁Enzo Molebeout: Sekou Kone
87'
🔁Nathan Butler-Oyedejiout: Florent Mollet
87'
90'
G. Privitelli
Papa Souleymane N'Diaye
90+5'
90+6'
⚽Brighton Labeauassist: Noah Christoffersson

Match stats — Lausanne vs FC Thun

42%Possession58%
11Shots18
5On target8
9Corners4
2.04xG2.96

Goals against chances

Lausanne4 from 2.04 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Thun5 from 2.96 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lausanne 3-4-3
  • 90M. MastilG
  • 4É. YoutéD
  • 71K. SowD
  • 31N. CozzaD
  • 2B. SoppyM
  • 29A. BlinM
  • 10O. CustodioM
  • 18M. PoatyM
  • 11N. Butler-OyedejiF
  • 78Omar JannehF
  • 9E. MolébéF
Substitutes
  • 51I. Bah Mendes MayalaF
  • 7A. AjdiniF
  • 1T. CastellaG
  • 22T. CordierD
  • 80S. KonéM
  • 91F. MolletM
  • 47Papa Souleymane N'DiayeM
  • 5D. NgonzoD
  • 17S. TraoreF
Coach: Luka Elsner
FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 23M. BürkiD
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 14M. KäitM
  • 15P. KristalM
  • 9F. DursunF
  • 96B. LabeauF
Substitutes
  • 20R. BraschiF
  • 5N. BürgyD
  • 26N. ChristofferssonF
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 37L. DählerD
  • 52Adam IlicM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 16J. RothM
Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli

Form going into Lausanne vs FC Thun

Lausanne

Super League

  • L0-1away to FC Sion25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC St. Gallen11 October 2026
  • L0-4FC Lugano20 September 2026

FC Thun

Super League

  • L2-3FC Lugano25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Lausanne131481223-117
8FC Thun134272737-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lausanne vs FC Thun

  • 2 September 2026FC Thun 0–0 LausanneSuper League
  • 12 February 2026FC Thun 5–1 LausanneSuper League
  • 30 November 2025Lausanne 2–1 FC ThunSuper League
  • 3 August 2025FC Thun 2–1 LausanneSuper League
  • 20 March 2025Lausanne 2–2 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 January 2025Lausanne 3–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Lausanne and FC Thun

Lausanne

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

FC Thun

GoalsAssists

  • B. Labeau61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Thun won 5–4 at Lausanne. The model had made a win for FC Thun its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Furkan Dursun 12' for FC Thun, Omar Janneh (penalty) 36' for Lausanne, Omar Janneh 45+1' for Lausanne, Enzo Molebe 53' for Lausanne, Lucien Dähler (own goal) 62' for Lausanne, Brighton Labeau 70' for FC Thun, Riccardo Braschi 81' for FC Thun, Abdou Karim Sow (own goal) 86' for FC Thun, Brighton Labeau 90+6' for FC Thun. On expected goals it finished 2.04–2.96.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lausanne a 90.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 84.6% after a win, 92.6% after a draw, 95.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.7%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

For FC Thun the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 36.8% going in: 26.7% after a win, 38.4% after a draw, 47.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.7%, 10.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.