15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Referee: F. Badstubner
Full time3 – 2

Final score: FC Lugano 3-2 FK Crvena Zvezda.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Lugano, 29% draw, 23% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Lugano at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Lugano97%Draw3%FK Crvena Zvezda0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Ajetiassist: R. Steffen
25'
32'
⚽T. Elsnikassist: M. Gashtarov
33'
V. Kostov
R. Steffen
53'
L. Mai
55'
🔁R. Steffenout: E. Pihlstrom
63'
🔁A. Ajetiout: K. Behrens
63'
64'
🔁T. Handelout: M. Cham
67'
⚽R. Krunicassist: M. Cham
🔁B. Karimovout: D. Moncada
73'
75'
🔁V. Lucicout: K. Balov
75'
🔁M. Risticout: M. Strika
🔁D. Dos Santosout: B. D. Castro Espinosa
79'
🔁H. Delcroixout: E. Alioski
79'
81'
🔁R. Krunicout: M. Bajo
81'
🔁B. Diengout: M. Arnautovic
82'
S. Gudelj
⚽D. Moncadaassist: Y. Cimignani
84'
88'
M. Bajo
89'
A. Riera
⚽A. Grgic (pen)
89'
90+4'
M. Gashtarov

Match stats — FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

41%Possession59%
18Shots20
5On target5
5Corners3
2.29xG1.23

Goals against chances

FC Lugano3 from 2.29 xGmore than the chances were worth
FK Crvena Zvezda2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-4-2-1
  • 16David von BallmoosG
  • 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
  • 17Lars Lukas MaiD
  • 3Hannes DelcroixD
  • 2Bekhruz KarimovM
  • 25Uran BislimiM
  • 8Anto GrgićM
  • 21Yanis CimignaniM
  • 11Renato SteffenF
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosF
  • 9Albian AjetiF
Substitutes
  • 24Elias PihlströmF
  • 91Kevin BehrensF
  • 30Dereck MoncadaF
  • 7Ezgjan AlioskiD
  • 22Beckham CastroF
  • 99Diego MinaG
  • 28Felix GebhardtG
  • 4Damian KelvinD
  • 26Martim MarquesD
FK Crvena Zvezda 5-4-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 37Vladimir LučićD
  • 60Matej GaštarovD
  • 45Stefan GudeljD
  • 3Yuta NakayamaD
  • 23Mihailo RistićD
  • 21Timi Max ElšnikM
  • 33Rade KrunićM
  • 20Tomás HändelM
  • 22Vasilije KostovM
  • 9Ahmadou Bamba DiengF
Substitutes
  • 70Muhammed-Cham SaračevićM
  • 27Matej StrikaD
  • 8Kristiyan BalovF
  • 6Mahmudu BajoM
  • 7Marko ArnautovićF
  • 50Savo RadanovićG
  • 77Ivan GutešaG
  • 30Franklin TeboD
  • 13Miloš VeljkovićD

Form going into FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

FC Lugano

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
  • W4-1FC St. Gallen16 September 2026
  • D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026
  • W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
  • W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Lugano3300114+79
15FK Crvena Zvezda31116604

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • K. Behrens71
  • Y. Cimignani34

FK Crvena Zvezda

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano beat FK Crvena Zvezda 3–2. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Ajeti 25' for FC Lugano, T. Elsnik 32' for FK Crvena Zvezda, R. Krunic 67' for FK Crvena Zvezda, D. Moncada 84' for FC Lugano, A. Grgic (penalty) 89' for FC Lugano. On expected goals it finished 2.29–1.23.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.