15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Riga vs Kairat Almaty UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Skonto stadions, Riga
Referee: F. Lata
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Riga 1-1 Kairat Almaty.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Riga, 26% draw, 26% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Riga at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Riga5%Draw92%Kairat Almaty3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽M. Gual (pen)
⚽S. Oulad M'Handassist: M. Tonisevs
12'
23'
J. Oksanen
⚽M. Badamosi (pen)assist: M. Badamosi
28'
56'
E. Tapalov
🔁M. Badamosiout: Reginaldo Ramires
61'
73'
🔁Edmilsonout: I. Bekbolat
79'
🔁A. Mrynskiyout: A. Tuyakbaev
79'
🔁G. Mendonsaout: D. Kasabulat
🔁R. Aouaniout: S. L. Robalo Pedro
86'
🔁M. Diopout: C. Saco
86'
90+2'
A. Martynovich

Match stats — Riga vs Kairat Almaty

64%Possession36%
18Shots14
8On target4
2Corners3
2.31xG1.15

Goals against chances

Riga1 from 2.31 xGless than the chances were worth
Kairat Almaty1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Riga 4-2-3-1
  • 12Kenan PirićG
  • 23Maksims TonisevsD
  • 21Baba MusahD
  • 5Karl Gameni WassomD
  • 13Raivis JurkovskisD
  • 40Ahmed AnkrahM
  • 8Iago Siqueira AugustoM
  • 22Meïssa DiopM
  • 18Salah Oulad M'HandM
  • 7Raki AouaniM
  • 19Muhammed BadamosiF
Substitutes
  • 10Reginaldo RamiresF
  • 6Coli SacoM
  • 15Samuel PedroF
  • 44Marcis KazainisG
  • 91Frenks OrolsG
  • 34Antonijs ČernomordijsD
  • 25Abdulrahman TaiwoF
Kairat Almaty 4-2-3-1
  • 1Temirlan AnarbekovG
  • 20Erkin TapalovD
  • 14Aleksandr MartynovichD
  • 25Aleksandr ShirobokovD
  • 3Luís MataD
  • 22Gustavo MendoncaM
  • 13Jaakko OksanenM
  • 24Aleksandr MrynskiyM
  • 28Marc GualM
  • 19Oiva JukkolaM
  • 9EdmilsonF
Substitutes
  • 81Ismail BekbolatF
  • 4Damir KasabulatD
  • 17Azamat TuyakbayevM
  • 82Sherkhan KalmurzaG
  • 5Lev KurginD
  • 6Adilet SadybekovM
  • 8Olzhas BaibekM
  • 27Mukhamedali AbishM
  • 15Mansur BirkurmanovF

Form going into Riga vs Kairat Almaty

Riga

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1KI Klaksvik27 August 2026
  • D0-0away to KI Klaksvik20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Gyori ETO FC13 August 2026
  • W1-0Gyori ETO FC6 August 2026
  • W5-2Vardar Skopje28 July 2026

Kairat Almaty

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Anderlecht27 August 2026
  • L0-3Anderlecht20 August 2026
  • L0-1Levski Sofia11 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia4 August 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia29 July 2026

What these results say

  • Riga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Riga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Riga30303303
27Kairat Almaty302137-42

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Riga and Kairat Almaty drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Riga at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Gual (penalty) 5' for Kairat Almaty, S. Oulad M'Hand 12' for Riga. On expected goals it finished 2.31–1.15.

How the call on Riga v Kairat Almaty has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Riga's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Riga win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Kairat Almaty win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.