15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Referee: D. Kos
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Heart of Midlothian, 28% draw, 28% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Heart of Midlothian at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heart of Midlothian4%Draw93%FC Nordsjaelland3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Cláudio Braga
5'
⚽O. McEnteeassist: J. McCart
33'
43'
Victor Nelsson
James Wilson
47'
55'
Ibrahim Adel
64'
🔁M. Brinkout: N. Rojkjaer
64'
🔁R. Norheimout: L. Sadio
Harry Milne
66'
🔁C. Bragaout: S. Kerjota
70'
72'
🔁A. Lindout: H. Rasmussen
🔁J. Wilsonout: J. Williams
77'
83'
🔁V. Nelssonout: V. Berthelsen
86'
⚽N. Rojkjaerassist: J. Lahteenmaki
🔁H. Milneout: S. Kingsley
87'
🔁O. McEnteeout: J. Altena
87'
🔁J. McPakeout: R. Mato
87'
89'
Juho Lähteenmäki

Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

44%Possession56%
20Shots11
7On target3
6Corners7
1.81xG0.64

Goals against chances

Heart of Midlothian1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Nordsjaelland1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 2C. BorchgrevinkD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 6O. McEnteeM
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 10C. BragaM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 21J. WilsonF
Substitutes
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 28Z. ClarkG
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 39M. GilliesD
  • 33F. PollockM
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 9J. WilliamsF
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
FC Nordsjaelland 3-4-3
  • 13A. HansenG
  • 25V. NelssonD
  • 3T. SalquistD
  • 4N. MarkmannD
  • 23R. NorheimM
  • 18J. JanssenM
  • 6M. BrinkM
  • 5J. LahteenmakiM
  • 14I. AdelF
  • 11A. LindF
  • 10P. AmoakoF
Substitutes
  • 22C. ErikssonG
  • 16J. BuskG
  • 2P. AnkersenD
  • 28M. WalkerD
  • 15S. AcquahD
  • 8N. RojkjaerM
  • 21M. HeydeM
  • 37L. SadioM
  • 9O. SolbakkenF
Coach: Jens Olsen

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

Heart of Midlothian

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
  • W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026

FC Nordsjaelland

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Odense9 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
  • W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026

What these results say

  • Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
  • FC Nordsjaelland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
32Heart of Midlothian301226-41
25FC Nordsjaelland302135-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland

Heart of Midlothian

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

FC Nordsjaelland

GoalsAssists

  • N. Røjkjær42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Heart of Midlothian at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: O. McEntee 33' for Heart of Midlothian, N. Rojkjaer 86' for FC Nordsjaelland. On expected goals it finished 1.81–0.64.

How the call on Heart of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Heart of Midlothian's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Heart of Midlothian win44%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. FC Nordsjaelland win28%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.