15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Referee: P. Ciochirca
Full time2 – 1

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Ajax.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% HNK Hajduk Split, 28% draw, 44% Ajax — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ajax at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Hajduk Split95%Draw5%Ajax0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Sanyangassist: M. Soticek
37'
A. del Moral
45'
53'
⚽D. Klaassenassist: T. Kehrer
⚽M. Soticekassist: M. Sego
55'
M. Sego
60'
🔁A. del Moralout: L. Dendoncker
69'
76'
🔁D. Klaassenout: J. Mokio
76'
🔁A. Ouazaneout: O. Gloukh
76'
🔁V. Tsygankovout: L. Rosa
77'
🔁J. Torrentsout: Marcos Leonardo
🔁S. Hrgovicout: D. Melnjak
82'
🔁A. Sanyangout: A. Sutalo
82'
🔁M. Segoout: C. Martin
90+1'
🔁K. Fayadout: A. Van Hoorenbeeck
90+1'

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax

43%Possession57%
14Shots12
8On target4
4Corners5
1.99xG1.15

Goals against chances

HNK Hajduk Split2 from 1.99 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ajax1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33Toni SilićG
  • 22Mathieu AcapandiéD
  • 6Dennis HadžikadunićD
  • 15Dario MarešićD
  • 32Šimun HrgovićD
  • 20Alberto del MoralM
  • 8Khalil FayadM
  • 7Abdoulie Sanyang BambaM
  • 9Dalisson de AlmeidaM
  • 23Marin ŠotičekM
  • 11Michele ŠegoF
Substitutes
  • 18Leander DendonckerM
  • 5Alec Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 17Dario MelnjakD
  • 16Anđelo ŠutaloM
  • 77Carlos MartínF
  • 44Dante StipicaG
  • 99Davyd FesyukG
  • 14Ron RaçiD
  • 3Roko GabrićD
Ajax 4-3-3
  • 1Marc-André Ter StegenG
  • 6Thilo KehrerD
  • 30Aaron BouwmanD
  • 15Youri BaasD
  • 21Jofre TorrentsD
  • 18Davy KlaassenM
  • 4Sofyan AmrabatM
  • 8Julian BrandtM
  • 11Viktor TsygankovF
  • 99Tolu ArokodareF
  • 68Abdellah OuazaneF
Substitutes
  • 10Oscar GloukhM
  • 24Jorthy MokioM
  • 2Lucas RosaD
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 26Maarten PaesG
  • 62Aymean el HaniG
  • 5Owen WijndalD
  • 36Dies JanseD
  • 67Mohamed AbdallaM

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
  • L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
  • W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
  • W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026

Ajax

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
  • D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
  • W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
  • W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
  • L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026

What these results say

  • HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ajax conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ajax.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13HNK Hajduk Split320132+16
11Ajax320193+66

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax

HNK Hajduk Split

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare63
  • D. Klaassen60
  • O. Gloukh52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split beat Ajax 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ajax at 44% and given a win for HNK Hajduk Split 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Sanyang 37' for HNK Hajduk Split, D. Klaassen 53' for Ajax, M. Soticek 55' for HNK Hajduk Split. On expected goals it finished 1.99–1.15.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.