15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

KuPS vs Trabzonspor UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Referee: I. Barbara
Full time2 – 4

Final score: KuPS 2-4 Trabzonspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% KuPS, 24% draw, 56% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Trabzonspor at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS0%Draw1%Trabzonspor99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽P. Onuachuassist: M. Salah
10'
🔁P. Onuachuout: Franculino
J. Eskesen
21'
24'
S. Akaydin
P. Parzyszek
34'
44'
⚽M. Salah
47'
⚽Franculino
51'
B. Mendy
⚽P. Pennanen
54'
55'
🔁O. Tufanout: T. Jabol-Folcarelli
55'
🔁B. Mendyout: Fabinho
55'
🔁M. Salahout: N. Saviolo
⚽P. Parzyszek (pen)assist: P. Parzyszek
59'
🔁B. Armahout: A. Aiki
63'
🔁P. Pennanenout: T. Jyry
63'
🔁J. Luyeye-Lutumbaout: G. Engvall
64'
🔁P. Parzyszekout: J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
74'
🔁S. Pasanenout: S. Touray
74'
74'
🔁A. Simsirout: E. Muci
K. Adams
86'
90+1'
⚽Franculinoassist: E. Muci
⚽G. Engvall
90+6'

Match stats — KuPS vs Trabzonspor

45%Possession55%
15Shots22
8On target8
9Corners6
2.07xG3.54

Goals against chances

KuPS2 from 2.07 xGabout what the chances were worth
Trabzonspor4 from 3.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1Johannes KreidlG
  • 29Akseli PuukkoD
  • 4Kasim AdamsD
  • 23Arttu LötjönenD
  • 13Niilo KujasaloD
  • 14Samuel PasanenM
  • 8Petteri PennanenM
  • 21Joslyn Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 34Julius EskesenM
  • 24Bob Nii ArmahM
  • 20Piotr ParzyszekF
Substitutes
  • 9Gustav EngvallF
  • 15Ayman AikiF
  • 16Tommi JyryM
  • 22Saikou TourayM
  • 11Jaime MorenoF
  • 12Hemmo RiihimäkiG
  • 6Saku SavolainenF
  • 25Clinton AntwiD
  • 28Brahima MagassaD
Trabzonspor 4-3-3
  • 24André OnanaG
  • 20Wagner PinaD
  • 4Samet AkaydınD
  • 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
  • 57Melih KabasakalD
  • 8Benjamin BouchouariM
  • 3Batista MendyM
  • 11Ozan TufanM
  • 10Mohamed SalahF
  • 30Paul OnuachuF
  • 58Aral ŞimşirF
Substitutes
  • 9Franculino DjúF
  • 6FabinhoM
  • 26Tim Jabol-FolcarelliM
  • 70Noah SavioloF
  • 7Ernest MuçiM
  • 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
  • 96Erol Can ÇolakG
  • 81Mustafa Kuzey AkcayD
  • 82Yiğithan ÇubukcuM

Form going into KuPS vs Trabzonspor

KuPS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Inter Turku11 October 2026
  • L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
  • W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026

Trabzonspor

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Samsunspor10 October 2026
  • W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
  • W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
  • KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Trabzonspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Trabzonspor had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
33KuPS301226-41
12Trabzonspor320163+36

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: KuPS and Trabzonspor

KuPS

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Trabzonspor

GoalsAssists

  • Franculino Djú52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Trabzonspor won 4–2 at KuPS. The model had made a win for Trabzonspor its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: P. Onuachu 3' for Trabzonspor, M. Salah 44' for Trabzonspor, Franculino 47' for Trabzonspor, P. Pennanen 54' for KuPS, Franculino 90+1' for Trabzonspor, G. Engvall 90+6' for KuPS. On expected goals it finished 2.07–3.54.

How the call on KuPS v Trabzonspor has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 20% / 24% / 56%: the biggest move is Trabzonspor's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. KuPS win20%▼ −7
  2. Draw24%▼ −4
  3. Trabzonspor win56%▲ +11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.