FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 3-0 Kauno Žalgiris.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% FC Lugano, 16% draw, 8% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.32, 6.25 and 12.50.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Lugano at 76%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16David von BallmoosG
- 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
- 17Lars Lukas MaiD
- 26Martim MarquesD
- 2Bekhruz KarimovM
- 21Yanis CimignaniM
- 14Ahmed KendouciM
- 25Uran BislimiM
- 7Ezgjan AlioskiM
- 9Albian AjetiF
- 27Daniel Dos SantosF
- 4Damian KelvinD
- 24Elias PihlströmF
- 28Felix GebhardtG
- 99Diego MinaG
- 46Mattia ZanottiD
- 18Joel BichselD
- 8Anto GrgićM
- 91Kevin BehrensF
- 22Beckham CastroF
- 22Deividas MikelionisG
- 45Joris MoutachyD
- 77Rokas LekiatasD
- 3Anton TolordavaD
- 23Aldayr HernándezD
- 37Nosa Iyobosa EdokpolorD
- 7Amine BenchaibM
- 20Anthony KalikM
- 14Vykintas SlivkaM
- 9Leon KrekovićM
- 27Gabriel DebeljuhF
- 8Yukiyoshi KarashimaM
- 24Motiejus BurbaF
- 62Lirim KastratiD
- 17Ivan FiolićM
- 55Tomas ŠvedkauskasG
- 15Léo RibeiroM
- 70Fabien OuregaM
- 10Gratas SirgėdasM
- 47Vejas PociusM
Form going into FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris
FC Lugano
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W5-2away to Getafe22 October 2026
- W3-2FK Crvena Zvezda15 October 2026
Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-4Brann22 October 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- K. Behrens71
- Y. Cimignani34
Kauno Žalgiris
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Lugano beat Kauno Žalgiris 3–0. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 76%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Y. Cimignani 11' for FC Lugano, E. Alioski 24' for FC Lugano, D. Dos Santos 32' for FC Lugano. On expected goals it finished 1.44–0.29.
How the call on FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 74% / 17% / 9% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 76% / 16% / 8%: the biggest move is FC Lugano's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Lugano win76%▲ +2
- Draw16%▼ −1
- Kauno Žalgiris win8%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often FC Lugano's most recent league matches and Kauno Žalgiris's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.