Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln Red Imps FC 1-0 HNK Hajduk Split.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 26% draw, 48% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
HNK Hajduk Split at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Jaylan HankinsG
- 66Julliani EerstelingD
- 5Gabri GarciaD
- 6Bernardo LopesD
- 3Christian RutjensD
- 21NanoD
- 18Toni GarcíaM
- 22Graeme TorrillaM
- 8MandiM
- 44Manuel ToledanoF
- 9Kike GómezF
- 32Facundo AlvarezM
- 10Álex MulaF
- 11Alvaro RomeroM
- 19Yussef Flalhi IdrissiF
- 23JoeM
- 1Nauzet GarciaG
- 27Mark HammG
- 2Ethan JolleyD
- 20Ethan BrittoD
- 33Toni SilićG
- 22Mathieu AcapandiéD
- 6Dennis HadžikadunićD
- 5Alec Van HoorenbeeckD
- 32Šimun HrgovićD
- 20Alberto del MoralM
- 8Khalil FayadM
- 7Abdoulie Sanyang BambaM
- 9Dalisson de AlmeidaM
- 23Marin ŠotičekM
- 11Michele ŠegoF
- 15Dario MarešićD
- 77Carlos MartínF
- 10Marko LivajaF
- 16Anđelo ŠutaloM
- 26Adam HuramM
- 44Dante StipicaG
- 99Davyd FesyukG
- 3Roko GabrićD
- 14Ron RaçiD
Form going into Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split
Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-4Twente22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Brann15 October 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W1-0away to FC Thun22 October 2026
- W2-1Ajax15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Lincoln Red Imps FC beat HNK Hajduk Split 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Hajduk Split at 48% and given a win for Lincoln Red Imps FC 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: D. Hadzikadunic (own goal) 89' for Lincoln Red Imps FC. On expected goals it finished 0.16–1.38.
How the call on Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 23% / 26% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is Lincoln Red Imps FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC win26%▲ +3
- Draw26%=
- HNK Hajduk Split win48%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Lincoln Red Imps FC's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and HNK Hajduk Split's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.