5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

FC Midtjylland vs Ajax UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

MCH Arena, Herning
Referee: Paweł Raczkowski, Poland
Full time1 – 6

Final score: FC Midtjylland 1-6 Ajax.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Midtjylland, 26% draw, 28% Ajax — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Midtjylland at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Midtjylland0%Draw1%Ajax99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽T. Arokodareassist: O. Gloukh
⚽F. Etim
28'
K. Watjen
35'
K. Watjen
43'
K. Watjen
43'
D. Castillo
45+1'
🔁D. Castilloout: P. Bravo
46'
🔁Cho Gue-Sungout: D. Beni
46'
🔁F. Etimout: J. Emefile
46'
52'
⚽T. Arokodareassist: A. Ouazane
59'
⚽O. Wijndalassist: T. Arokodare
🔁S. Johannesenout: S. Iheanacho
60'
67'
⚽D. Klaassenassist: T. Kehrer
🔁P. Billingout: Hong Hyun-Seok
68'
68'
🔁O. Wijndalout: D. Blind
68'
🔁A. Ouazaneout: R. Bounida
70'
🔁T. Arokodareout: Marcos Leonardo
70'
🔁Y. Baasout: M. Abdalla
74'
⚽O. Gloukhassist: R. Bounida
75'
🔁D. Klaassenout: J. Torrents
82'
⚽Marcos Leonardoassist: O. Gloukh

Match stats — FC Midtjylland vs Ajax

29%Possession71%
10Shots24
4On target11
1Corners8
1.68xG3.45

Goals against chances

FC Midtjylland1 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth
Ajax6 from 3.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland 3-4-1-2
  • 25Nordin BakkerG
  • 4Ousmane DiaoD
  • 22Mads Bech SørensenD
  • 55Victor Bak JensenD
  • 5Rasmus KristensenM
  • 29Kjell WätjenM
  • 8Philip BillingM
  • 27Sofus JohannesenM
  • 21Denil CastilloF
  • 10Gue-sung ChoF
  • 90Friday EtimF
Substitutes
  • 15Beni JuniorD
  • 19Pedro BravoM
  • 38Julius EmefileM
  • 18Stanley IheanachoF
  • 20Hong Hyun-seokM
  • 30Ovie EjeheriG
  • 60Mark UgbohG
  • 34Abdou Aziz NdiayeD
  • 9Mileta RajovićF
Ajax 4-2-3-1
  • 1Marc-André ter StegenG
  • 2Lucas RosaD
  • 6Thilo KehrerD
  • 36Dies JanseD
  • 5Owen WijndalD
  • 18Davy KlaassenM
  • 15Youri BaasM
  • 68Abdellah OuazaneM
  • 24Jorthy MokioM
  • 10Oscar GloukhM
  • 99Tolu ArokodareF
Substitutes
  • 17Daley BlindD
  • 43Rayane BounidaF
  • 67Mohamed AbdallaM
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 21Jofre TorrentsD
  • 22Joeri HeerkensG
  • 26Maarten PaesG
  • 30Aaron BouwmanD
  • 23Steven BerghuisF

Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Ajax

FC Midtjylland

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-1St. Truiden22 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë15 October 2026

Ajax

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W2-0Atalanta22 October 2026
  • L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
34FC Midtjylland301228-61
11Ajax320193+66

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Ajax

  • 25 November 2020Ajax 3–1 FC MidtjyllandUEFA Champions League
  • 3 November 2020FC Midtjylland 1–2 AjaxUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Ajax

FC Midtjylland

GoalsAssists

  • Cho Gue-Sung30

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare63
  • D. Klaassen60
  • O. Gloukh52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ajax won 6–1 at FC Midtjylland. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Midtjylland at 46% and given a win for Ajax 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: T. Arokodare 9' for Ajax, F. Etim 28' for FC Midtjylland, T. Arokodare 52' for Ajax, O. Wijndal 59' for Ajax, D. Klaassen 67' for Ajax, O. Gloukh 74' for Ajax, Marcos Leonardo 82' for Ajax. Sent off: K. Watjen (FC Midtjylland) 43'. On expected goals it finished 1.68–3.45.

How the call on FC Midtjylland v Ajax has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is FC Midtjylland's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. FC Midtjylland win46%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Ajax win28%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.