FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Saarbrücken 2-4 MSV Duisburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% FC Saarbrücken, 28% draw, 36% MSV Duisburg — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Saarbrücken at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
Line-ups
- 1M. BignettiG
- 42P. FahrnerD
- 21M. CvjetinovićD
- 4S. VoetD
- 28N. BretschneiderD
- 5Daniel GleiberM
- 14Z. ShuaibM
- 31K. MeiselM
- 20F. PickM
- 22K. CaliskanerF
- 29A. StaffF
- 8Gökdeniz GürpüzF
- 15A. KamaraM
- 10C. KühlwetterF
- 16Lee Seung-JoonM
- 7C. RizzutoD
- 19S. VasiliadisM
- 3Anton BäuerleD
- 9K. BrünkerF
- 33K. BrollG
- 1M. BrauneG
- 29J. BitterD
- 5T. FlecksteinD
- 40B. SchlickeD
- 20N. JessenM
- 8A. CasarM
- 6R. BulićM
- 3F. ChristensenM
- 14C. NoßM
- 11D. KotherM
- 9L. LobingerF
- 37P. SussekM
- 17M. BesuschkowM
- 27C. CoşkunD
- 43R. HaddouD
- 26F. KrügerF
- 39P. RemmertF
- 19Ramien SafiF
- 33T. StahlG
Form going into FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
FC Saarbrücken
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Fortuna Köln10 October 2026
MSV Duisburg
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Saarbrücken | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 20 |
| 2 | MSV Duisburg | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
- 8 March 2026MSV Duisburg 4–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 30 September 2025FC Saarbrücken 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 16 March 2024MSV Duisburg 2–0 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 29 November 2023FC Saarbrücken 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 21 May 2023MSV Duisburg 2–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
Leading scorers: FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg
FC Saarbrücken
GoalsAssists
- K. Brünker51
- F. Pick34
MSV Duisburg
GoalsAssists
- L. Lobinger44
- P. Remmert40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
MSV Duisburg won 4–2 at FC Saarbrücken. The goals: Lex-Tyger Lobinger 29' for MSV Duisburg, Tobias Fleckstein 34' for MSV Duisburg, Rasim Bulic 42' for MSV Duisburg, Kai Brünker 50' for FC Saarbrücken, Florian Krüger 81' for MSV Duisburg, Gokdeniz Gurpuz 90' for FC Saarbrücken.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Saarbrücken a 20.5% chance to finish in the top four: 24.7% after a win, 19.3% after a draw, 15.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.7%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.
For MSV Duisburg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 72.1% going in: 78.0% after a win, 71.4% after a draw, 67.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.0%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.