Wrexham vs West Brom Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wrexham 1-2 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Wrexham, 30% draw, 29% West Brom — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Wrexham at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wrexham vs West Brom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. PattersonG
- 12I. KaboréD
- 26Z. VynerD
- 5D. HyamD
- 2C. DoyleD
- 3J. EkomiéD
- 15G. DobsonM
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 20O. RathboneM
- 19K. MooreF
- 17C. O'HareF
- 21D. WardG
- 6J. WorrallD
- 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
- 34A. JamesD
- 27L. O'BrienM
- 47R. LongmanM
- 28S. SmithF
- 11B. CadamarteriF
- 50Samuel ChesworthF
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 2C. MephamD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 21I. PriceM
- 9B. StewartF
- 20R. NzingoulaF
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 7F. MyhreM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 11J. MorganF
- 23T. BanyF
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 13M. IngramG
- 35M. CrowtherM
Form going into Wrexham vs West Brom
Wrexham
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Swansea5 September 2026
West Brom
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Birmingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for West Brom had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs West Brom
- 3 April 2026West Brom 2–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 16 August 2025Wrexham 2–3 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and West Brom
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore52
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Brom won 2–1 at Wrexham. The model had leaned towards a win for Wrexham at 41% and given a win for West Brom 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kieffer Moore 64' for Wrexham, Isaac Price 79' for West Brom, Aune Heggebo 84' for West Brom. On expected goals it finished 0.46–1.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wrexham a 5.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.2% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 7.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.6%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For West Brom the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.2% going in: 2.7% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.7%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wrexham v West Brom has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Wrexham's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Wrexham win41%▲ +3
- Draw30%▼ −1
- West Brom win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.