1 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Referee: Robert Hartmann
Full time1 – 3

Final score: FC St. Pauli 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% FC St. Pauli, 28% draw, 33% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Pauli at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Eric Smith (OG)
55'
Eric Porstner
⚽Abdoulie Ceesayassist: Arkadiusz Pyrka
58'
🔁Mathias Rasmussenout: Samuel Klein
58'
65'
🔁Piet Scobelout: Sigurd Haugen
65'
🔁Rayan Ghriebout: William Bøving
68'
Alexios Kalogeropoulos
70'
Sigurd Haugen
🔁Branimir Hrgotaout: Martijn Kaars
71'
71'
⚽Sigurd Haugen
74'
🔁Julian Justvanout: Giannis Masouras
Joel Chima Fujita
78'
80'
Rafael Lubach
🔁Lars Ritzkaout: Youssoupha Niang
81'
84'
🔁Rafael Lubachout: Marc Kornwachs Barjuan
84'
🔁Tim Janischout: Styopa Mkrtchyan
90'
⚽Marc Kornwachs Barjuanassist: Eric Porstner
David Nemeth
90+3'

Match stats — FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg

47%Possession53%
24Shots14
7On target7
4Corners2
3.96xG0.95

Goals against chances

FC St. Pauli1 from 3.96 xGless than the chances were worth
1. FC Nürnberg3 from 0.95 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. VollG
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 8E. SmithD
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 11A. PyrkaM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 23L. OppieM
  • 24C. MetcalfeM
  • 10B. HrgotaF
  • 9Abdoulie CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 14E. AhlstrandM
  • 15T. AndoD
  • 25A. DźwigałaD
  • 18T. HaraF
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 22Samuel KleinM
  • 6M. MathisenD
  • 33D. MitovG
  • 7Y. NiangF
Coach: M. Rapp
1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ReichertG
  • 32T. JanischD
  • 4A. KalogeropoulosD
  • 20F. OttoD
  • 41E. PorstnerD
  • 6A. MarhievM
  • 8J. FernandezM
  • 7R. GhriebM
  • 10J. JustvanM
  • 18Rafael LubachM
  • 19P. ScobelF
Substitutes
  • 16Marko SoldicM
  • 28Can Yaha MoustfaF
  • 5S. MkrtchyanD
  • 21G. MasourasD
  • 13Robin LisewskiG
  • 9S. HaugenF
  • 14Andrea CeresoliD
  • 11W. BøvingF
  • 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanM
Coach: M. Klose

Form going into FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg

FC St. Pauli

2. Bundesliga

  • D0-0away to SV Darmstadt 9823 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Hannover 9617 October 2026
  • W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026

1. FC Nürnberg

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-11. FC Kaiserslautern24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Energie Cottbus16 October 2026
  • D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9FC St. Pauli112631316-312
21. FC Nürnberg117312613+1324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg

  • 16 March 2024FC Nurnberg 0–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 7 October 2023FC St. Pauli 5–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 29 January 2023FC Nurnberg 0–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 16 July 2022FC St. Pauli 3–2 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 29 April 2022FC St. Pauli 1–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 28 November 2021FC Nurnberg 2–3 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg

FC St. Pauli

GoalsAssists

  • Abdoulie Ceesay50

1. FC Nürnberg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zoma70
  • P. Scobel61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Nürnberg won 3–1 at FC St. Pauli. The model had leaned towards a win for FC St. Pauli at 39% and given a win for 1. FC Nürnberg 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Eric Smith (own goal) 7' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Abdoulie Ceesay 58' for FC St. Pauli, Sigurd Haugen 71' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Marc Kornwachs Barjuan 90' for 1. FC Nürnberg. On expected goals it finished 3.96–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC St. Pauli a 4.8% chance to finish in the top two: 6.3% after a win, 4.1% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.7%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

For 1. FC Nürnberg the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 29.1% going in: 35.1% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is FC St. Pauli's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC St. Pauli win39%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. 1. FC Nürnberg win33%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.