1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 Segunda Liga prediction & result

Tondela
Referee: Iancu Ioan Vasilica
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Tondela 3-2 Felgueiras 1932.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Tondela, 29% draw, 26% Felgueiras 1932 — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tondela at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tondela97%Draw3%Felgueiras 19320%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Lucas da Costa Duarteassist: Bilal Ouacharaf
⚽Antonio Tomane
28'
Antonio Tomane
28'
29'
Afonso Freitas
⚽Hugo Félixassist: José María Pérez García
45+5'
53'
⚽Joao Reis Pintoassist: Francisco Paulo Franco Franca
🔁Arjen Van Der Heideout: Xabier Huarte Armendáriz
65'
🔁Hélder Tavaresout: Tiago Dias
65'
72'
🔁Tiago Leiteout: Mario Rivas Viondi
🔁Rodrigo Cascavelout: Henry Addo
80'
🔁Hugo Félixout: Gaston Novero
80'
83'
🔁Beni Jetourout: Rodrigo Santos Ribeiro
⚽Antonio Tomaneassist: Tiago Dias
88'
90+3'
🔁Michel Costaout: Joaozinho
90+3'
🔁Joao Reis Pintoout: Filipe Cruz
90+3'
🔁Armando Roberto·Torres Lopesout: Afonso Peixoto

Match stats — Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932

63%Possession37%
14Shots10
6On target5
10Corners1

Line-ups

Tondela 4-2-3-1
  • 28CarlosG
  • 15CarraçaD
  • 4Christian MarquesD
  • 6FarruD
  • 12Zé RicardoD
  • 8Hélder TavaresM
  • 37SararáM
  • 26A. van der HeideF
  • 20Hugo FélixM
  • 7CascavelM
  • 19TómanéF
Substitutes
  • 77Tiago DiasD
  • 9João LimaF
  • 17G. NoveroF
  • 14Xabi HuarteM
  • 13S. SitholeM
  • 11Alves Richarllyson CarvalhoF
  • 10H. AddoF
  • 22B. AlmeidaD
  • 5João AfonsoD
Coach: Ricardo Costa
Felgueiras 1932 3-5-2
  • 14Mateus PasinatoG
  • 70B. OuacharafD
  • 3João PintoD
  • 23Afonso de FreitasD
  • 80Tiago Ventura da SilvaF
  • 16Beni JetourM
  • 10Michel CostaM
  • 77Francisco FrançaM
  • 15Armando LopesD
  • 9Tiago Rafael Fernandes LeiiteF
  • 19Lucas da Costa DuarteF
Substitutes
  • 5Afonso PeixotoD
  • 95Nuno NamoraD
  • 24Rui RampaD
  • 17Filipe CruzD
  • 25Felipe ScheibigG
  • 7Mario RivasF
  • 13JoãozinhoF
  • 96Martim Duarte
  • 20Rodrigo Santos RibeiroM
Coach: Moreno

Form going into Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932

Tondela

Segunda Liga

  • L1-2away to AVS25 October 2026
  • W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026

Felgueiras 1932

Segunda Liga

  • D2-2Lusitânia Lourosa25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
  • L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Tondela105141311+216
15Felgueiras 1932101541215-38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932

  • 8 February 2025Felgueiras 1932 1–0 TondelaSegunda Liga
  • 31 August 2024Tondela 1–1 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
  • 22 November 2020Felgueiras 1932 0–1 TondelaTaça de Portugal

Leading scorers: Tondela and Felgueiras 1932

Tondela

GoalsAssists

  • Cascavel10

Felgueiras 1932

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tondela beat Felgueiras 1932 3–2. The model had made a win for Tondela its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lucas da Costa Duarte 20' for Felgueiras 1932, Antonio Tomane 28' for Tondela, Hugo Félix 45+5' for Tondela, Joao Reis Pinto 53' for Felgueiras 1932, Antonio Tomane 88' for Tondela.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tondela a 10.2% chance to finish in the top three: 11.9% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

For Felgueiras 1932 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.9% going in: 16.3% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 27.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.2%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tondela v Felgueiras 1932 has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 54% / 27% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Tondela's chance of winning, down 9 points.

  1. Tondela win45%▼ −9
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Felgueiras 1932 win26%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.