1 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover
Referee: Felix Weller
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Hannover 96 2-1 Dynamo Dresden.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Hannover 96, 26% draw, 31% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hannover 96 at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hannover 9697%Draw3%Dynamo Dresden0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Nicolai Rappassist: Friedrich Müller
45'
🔁Nicolai Rappout: Ahmet Muhamedbegovic
🔁Stefán Teitur Thórdarsonout: Franz Roggow
45'
🔁Kolja Oudenneout: Waniss Taibi
45'
⚽Husseyn Chakrounassist: Benjamin Källman
54'
59'
🔁Christoph Dafernerout: Vincent Vermeij
59'
🔁Jakob Lemmerout: Ben Bobzien
59'
🔁Niklas Hauptmannout: Luca Herrmann
59'
Friedrich Müller
⚽Marcel Hartel (pen)
61'
65'
Friedrich Müller
🔁Husseyn Chakrounout: Mustapha Bundu
68'
69'
🔁Tobias Raschlout: Till Neininger
•Virgil Ghiță
78'
🔁Emir Sahitiout: Bastian Allgeier
83'
Jean Hugonet
86'
🔁Benjamin Källmanout: Merlin Sinanović
88'
90+4'
Robert Wagner

Match stats — Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden

54%Possession46%
23Shots11
6On target3
6Corners3
2.66xG1.37

Goals against chances

Hannover 962 from 2.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Dynamo Dresden1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hannover 96 3-4-2-1
  • 30L. WeinkaufG
  • 5V. GhițăD
  • 3B. TomiakD
  • 4J. HugonetD
  • 44E. SahitiM
  • 23S. ÞórðarsonM
  • 10M. HartelM
  • 29K. OudenneM
  • 27H. MatsudaM
  • 14H. ChakrounM
  • 9B. KällmanF
Substitutes
  • 17B. AllgeierD
  • 42Manuel BraunD
  • 7M. BunduF
  • 22Noah EngelbrethM
  • 1P. LoretzG
  • 20I. OkonD
  • 13F. RoggowM
  • 8W. TaïbiM
  • 49Merlin SinanovićF
Coach: S. Wagner
Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. GrillG
  • 32J. SternerD
  • 6N. RappD
  • 42F. MullerD
  • 19A. RossipalD
  • 18R. WagnerM
  • 21T. RaschlM
  • 24P. ČovićM
  • 27N. HauptmannM
  • 10J. LemmerM
  • 33C. DafernerF
Substitutes
  • 8L. HerrmannM
  • 11K. InanogluF
  • 17A. MuhamedbegovićD
  • 34T. NeiningerD
  • 1T. SchreiberG
  • 44S. StraudiD
  • 9V. VermeijF
  • 29L. BoederD
  • 20B. BobzienF
Coach: Thomas Stamm

Form going into Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden

Hannover 96

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig25 October 2026
  • D1-1FC St. Pauli17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg10 October 2026

Dynamo Dresden

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-3away to Holstein Kiel25 October 2026
  • W2-01. FC Magdeburg18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Hannover 96113351218-612
15Dynamo Dresden113261520-511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden

  • 22 February 2026Hannover 96 0–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 21 September 2025Dynamo Dresden 2–2 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 23 January 2022Hannover 96 0–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 14 August 2021Dynamo Dresden 2–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 3 June 2020Hannover 96 3–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 5 October 2019Dynamo Dresden 0–2 Hannover 962. Bundesliga

The result against the call

Hannover 96 beat Dynamo Dresden 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Hannover 96 at 43%. The goals: Nicolai Rapp 11' for Dynamo Dresden, Husseyn Chakroun 54' for Hannover 96, Marcel Hartel (penalty) 61' for Hannover 96. Sent off: Friedrich Müller (Dynamo Dresden) 65'. On expected goals it finished 2.66–1.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hannover 96 a 17.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 11.8% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 23.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

For Dynamo Dresden the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 15.2% going in: 10.7% after a win, 14.1% after a draw, 18.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.3%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hannover 96 v Dynamo Dresden has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Hannover 96's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Hannover 96 win43%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Dynamo Dresden win31%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.