1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa
Referee: Claudio Pereira
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Farense.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Lusitânia Lourosa, 26% draw, 28% Farense — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lusitânia Lourosa at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lusitânia Lourosa5%Draw91%Farense4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Dylan João Raymond Collard
7'
9'
Nermin Zolotic
•Micael correia
13'
32'
Fabijan Buntić
⚽Micael correia (pen)
34'
43'
⚽André Candeiasassist: Joao·Resende
46'
🔁Nermin Zoloticout: Rodrigo Borges
55'
🔁Nelson Oliveiraout: Edi Semedo
Micael correia
57'
🔁João Santosout: João Silva
71'
🔁Arsénio Nunesout: Miguel Teixeira
71'
73'
🔁Joao·Resendeout: Bruno Miguel Vicente dos Santos
78'
Claudio Falcão
🔁Paulo Miguel·Gomes Ferreiraout: Saliou Mandiang
81'
84'
🔁André Candeiasout: Victor Hugo da Silva Barbara
84'
🔁Sarpreet Singhout: Miguel menino

Match stats — Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense

51%Possession49%
8Shots8
3On target3
4Corners3

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa 4-3-3
  • 29Brian AraújoG
  • 24RicardinhoD
  • 22Bruno FariaD
  • 4D. CollardD
  • 52F. MachadoD
  • 12ArsénioF
  • 20Diogo PauloM
  • 27FabinhoM
  • 21PaulitéF
  • 17João SantosF
  • 7Micael correiaF
Substitutes
  • 42Guilherme SoaresD
  • 90Iuri MoreiraF
  • 19SaliouD
  • 80ManelF
  • 6António MontezD
  • 23Marco SousaG
  • 10André RicardoF
  • 16Luís RochaD
  • 9João SilvaF
Farense 4-3-3
  • 97F. BuntićG
  • 78Alex PintoD
  • 37Gonçalo SilvaD
  • 44N. ZolotićD
  • 6Derick PoloniD
  • 10S. SinghM
  • 29Cláudio FalcãoM
  • 27Mattheus OliveiraM
  • 17André CandeiasF
  • 11Nélson OliveiraF
  • 7João ResendeF
Substitutes
  • 70VictorF
  • 1J. TånnanderG
  • 99Edi SemedoF
  • 88Rafael TeixeiraM
  • 19Leonardo OliveiraF
  • 8Miguel MeninoM
  • 22Toni HerreroD
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
  • 5Rodrigo BorgesD
Coach: José Faria

Form going into Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense

Lusitânia Lourosa

Segunda Liga

  • D2-2away to Felgueiras 193225 October 2026
  • D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026

Farense

Segunda Liga

  • L1-4Penafiel24 October 2026
  • W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
  • W4-0Chaves4 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lusitânia Lourosa10541159+619
8Farense104331714+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense

  • 1 March 2026Farense 2–1 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
  • 4 October 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 1–2 FarenseSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense

Lusitânia Lourosa

GoalsAssists

  • Mika Borges10

Farense

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Silva10
  • S. Singh10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lusitânia Lourosa at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Micael correia (penalty) 34' for Lusitânia Lourosa, André Candeias 43' for Farense.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lusitânia Lourosa a 32.6% chance to finish in the top three: 37.4% after a win, 30.1% after a draw, 26.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.1%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

For Farense the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 17.0% going in: 21.8% after a win, 16.4% after a draw, 14.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.4%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lusitânia Lourosa v Farense has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Lusitânia Lourosa's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Lusitânia Lourosa win46%▲ +6
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Farense win28%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.