5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Referee: Kyriakos Athanasiou, Cyprus
Full time3 – 1

Final score: FC Thun 3-1 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Thun, 26% draw, 28% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Thun at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. McCart (OG)
22'
⚽B. Labeau
34'
N. Maier
37'
F. Dursun
45+2'
54'
🔁S. Guendouzout: P. Kabore
⚽F. Dursunassist: N. Reichmuth
57'
N. Reichmuth
59'
63'
🔁S. Kingsleyout: M. Gillies
🔁N. Maierout: P. Kristal
65'
🔁F. Dursunout: N. Christoffersson
65'
🔁B. Labeauout: M. Gutbub
72'
🔁N. Reichmuthout: N. Zoukit
72'
76'
🔁J. McPakeout: J. Wilson
76'
🔁S. Kerjotaout: J. Williams
77'
J. McCart
🔁O. Mambwaout: T. Strannegard
79'
J. Bamert
81'
82'
⚽S. Findlayassist: J. Altena

Match stats — FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian

46%Possession54%
18Shots15
8On target4
4Corners5
1.84xG1.22

Goals against chances

FC Thun3 from 1.84 xGmore than the chances were worth
Heart of Midlothian1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1Niklas SteffenG
  • 37Lucien DählerD
  • 19Jan BamertD
  • 23Marco BürkiD
  • 2Olivier MambwaD
  • 70Nils ReichmuthM
  • 16Justin RothM
  • 14Mattias KäitM
  • 30Nico MaierM
  • 96Brighton LabeauF
  • 9Furkan DursunF
Substitutes
  • 15Patrik KristalM
  • 26Noah ChristofferssonF
  • 13Nassim ZoukitM
  • 33Marc GutbubF
  • 18Tom StrannegårdM
  • 25Tim SpycherG
  • 5Nicolas BürgyD
  • 47Fabio FehrD
  • 21Dorian DerbaciM
Heart of Midlothian 4-4-2
  • 1Beau ReusG
  • 3Stephen KingsleyD
  • 64Malachi Fagan-WalcottD
  • 17Stuart FindlayD
  • 5Jamie McCartD
  • 29Sabah KerjotaM
  • 23Jordi AltenaM
  • 78Laurent MendyM
  • 15Josh McPakeM
  • 19Severin Sabri GuendouzF
  • 10Cláudio BragaF
Substitutes
  • 11Pierre Landry KaboréF
  • 39Matthew GilliesD
  • 21James WilsonF
  • 9Jerome WilliamsF
  • 28Zander ClarkG
  • 30Ryan FultonG
  • 38Gus StevensonM
  • 33Finlay PollockM

Form going into FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian

FC Thun

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-1HNK Hajduk Split22 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Twente15 October 2026

Heart of Midlothian

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-2away to Trabzonspor22 October 2026
  • D1-1FC Nordsjaelland15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20FC Thun31023303
32Heart of Midlothian301226-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

FC Thun beat Heart of Midlothian 3–1. The model had made a win for FC Thun its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. McCart (own goal) 22' for FC Thun, B. Labeau 34' for FC Thun, F. Dursun 57' for FC Thun, S. Findlay 82' for Heart of Midlothian. On expected goals it finished 1.84–1.22.

How the call on FC Thun v Heart of Midlothian has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 40% / 24% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Heart of Midlothian's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. FC Thun win46%▲ +6
  2. Draw26%▲ +2
  3. Heart of Midlothian win28%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.