5 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens
Referee: Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Panathinaikos 2-1 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Panathinaikos, 23% draw, 14% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Panathinaikos at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Panathinaikos98%Draw2%CSKA Sofia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Calabriaassist: V. Taborda
41'
44'
⚽D. Almeidaassist: S. Sensi
R. Van Drongelen
45'
46'
🔁I. Pittasout: M. Ebong
46'
🔁I. Soletout: B. Jordao
I. Louza
53'
55'
🔁Pastorout: T. Ouorou
🔁E. Rastoderout: A. Tetteh
64'
🔁I. Louzaout: E. Camara
65'
⚽V. Tabordaassist: A. Tetteh
68'
70'
🔁S. Sensiout: M. Brahimi
🔁L. Garciaout: C. Dessers
76'
E. Camara
77'
80'
🔁A. Yordanovout: J. Zwarts
S. Andino
81'
🔁S. Andinoout: A. Jagusic
85'

Match stats — Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia

63%Possession37%
24Shots9
12On target5
12Corners4
2.56xG1.06

Goals against chances

Panathinaikos2 from 2.56 xGless than the chances were worth
CSKA Sofia1 from 1.06 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Panathinaikos 4-2-3-1
  • 1Iñaki PeñaG
  • 2Davide CalabriaD
  • 6Stefan de VrijD
  • 55Rick Van DrongelenD
  • 77Georgios KyriakopoulosD
  • 26Imrân LouzaM
  • 42Kings KangwaM
  • 20Vicente TabordaM
  • 99Levi GarcíaM
  • 10Santino AndinoM
  • 74Elmin RastoderF
Substitutes
  • 71Christos GitonasG
  • 70Konstantinos KotsarisG
  • 3Georgios KatrisD
  • 14Erik Palmer BrownD
  • 19Triantafyllos TsaprasM
  • 4Pedro ChirivellaM
  • 8Adriano JagušićM
  • 18Sotiris KontourisM
  • 22Etienne CamaraM
CSKA Sofia 4-1-4-1
  • 21Fedor LapoukhovG
  • 2PastorD
  • 14Teodor IvanovD
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 17Ángelo MartinoD
  • 5Jean-Philippe GbaminM
  • 28Ioannis PittasM
  • 94Isaac SoletM
  • 8Stefano SensiM
  • 19Andrey YordanovM
  • 9Leandro GodoyF
Substitutes
  • 7Max EbongM
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 3Tamimou OuorouD
  • 25Dimitar EvtimovG
  • 91Aleks TunchevD
  • 32Facundo RodríguezD
  • 99James Eto'oM
  • 67Cătălin ItuM
  • 34Vasil KaymakanovF

Form going into Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia

Panathinaikos

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W5-1away to Kairat Almaty22 October 2026
  • W2-1Borac Banja Luka15 October 2026

CSKA Sofia

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D2-2away to FC Nordsjaelland22 October 2026
  • L1-2Monaco15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Panathinaikos330093+69
28CSKA Sofia301246-21

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia

Panathinaikos

GoalsAssists

  • C. Dessers60

CSKA Sofia

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Panathinaikos beat CSKA Sofia 2–1. The model had made a win for Panathinaikos its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: D. Calabria 41' for Panathinaikos, D. Almeida 44' for CSKA Sofia, V. Taborda 68' for Panathinaikos. On expected goals it finished 2.56–1.06.

How the call on Panathinaikos v CSKA Sofia has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 68% / 19% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 63% / 23% / 14%: the biggest move is Panathinaikos's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Panathinaikos win63%▼ −5
  2. Draw23%▲ +4
  3. CSKA Sofia win14%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.