5 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

St. Truiden vs Brann UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Referee: Oliver Reitala, Finland
Full time1 – 1

Final score: St. Truiden 1-1 Brann.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% St. Truiden, 26% draw, 22% Brann — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden5%Draw92%Brann3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁T. Pedersenout: K. Eriksen
⚽N. Ishiwatari
48'
🔁S. Shinkawaout: R. Merlen
59'
62'
🔁N. Castroout: S. Magnusson
63'
🔁J. Torsvikout: J. Soltvedt
🔁N. Mbukuout: A. Muja
64'
A. Muja
77'
🔁F. Soelleout: S. Bazdar
78'
79'
⚽U. Mathisenassist: K. M. Ingason
87'
🔁U. Mathisenout: V. Dragsnes
89'
S. Magnusson

Match stats — St. Truiden vs Brann

43%Possession57%
17Shots9
5On target5
4Corners7
1.08xG0.64

Goals against chances

St. Truiden1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth
Brann1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Truiden 4-2-3-1
  • 16Léo KokuboG
  • 60Robert-Jan VanwesemaelD
  • 5Shogo TaniguchiD
  • 26Visar MusliuD
  • 23Joedrick PupeD
  • 8Abdoulaye SissakoM
  • 18Nelson IshiwatariM
  • 11Nathanaël MbukuM
  • 99Shion ShinkawaM
  • 10Ilias SebaouiM
  • 19Frederic Soelle SoelleF
Substitutes
  • 14Ryan MerlenM
  • 21Matt LendfersG
  • 35Yanis NgoyG
  • 3Taiga HataD
  • 27Jeremy Kandje MbambiD
  • 22Wolke JanssensD
  • 71Ryotaro ArakiM
  • 7Arbnor MujaF
  • 31Ben Achour IlyesM
Brann 4-3-3
  • 12Simen Vidtun NilsenG
  • 2Leo CornicD
  • 3Fredrik Pallesen KnudsenD
  • 23Thore PedersenD
  • 15Jonas TorsvikD
  • 10Kristall Máni IngasonM
  • 21Neraysho KasanwirjoM
  • 25Niklas Jensen WassbergM
  • 14Ulrik MathisenF
  • 29Noah Jean HolmF
  • 9Niklas CastroF
Substitutes
  • 16Kristian EriksenM
  • 22Sævar Atli MagnússonF
  • 17Joachim SoltvedtD
  • 36Håkon Melås HellesøyG
  • 1Mathias DyngelandG
  • 20Vetle DragsnesD
  • 43Brage Berg HaugenM
  • 37Sondre Blumenfeldt VindenesM
  • 11Bård FinneF

Form going into St. Truiden vs Brann

St. Truiden

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W1-0away to FC Midtjylland22 October 2026
  • W2-0FC Iberia 199915 October 2026

Brann

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W4-1away to Kauno Žalgiris22 October 2026
  • W2-1Lincoln Red Imps FC15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10St. Truiden321041+37
6Brann321073+47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and Brann

St. Truiden

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Brann

GoalsAssists

  • N. Holm30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Truiden and Brann drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Truiden at 52% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Ishiwatari 48' for St. Truiden, U. Mathisen 79' for Brann. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.64.

How the call on St. Truiden v Brann has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is St. Truiden's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. St. Truiden win52%▼ −5
  2. Draw26%▲ +3
  3. Brann win22%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.