Riga vs FK Jablonec UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Riga 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Riga, 28% draw, 41% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FK Jablonec at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Riga vs FK Jablonec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Kenan PirićG
- 23Maksims TonisevsD
- 21Baba MusahD
- 5Karl Gameni WassomD
- 13Raivis JurkovskisD
- 40Ahmed AnkrahM
- 8Iago SiqueiraM
- 22Meïssa DiopM
- 18Salah Oulad M'HandM
- 7Raki AouaniM
- 10Reginaldo RamiresF
- 44Marcis KazainisG
- 91Frenks OrolsG
- 34Antonijs ČernomordijsD
- 6Coli SacoM
- 11Caio FerreiraM
- 15Samuel PedroF
- 19Muhammed BadamosiF
- 25Abdulrahman TaiwoF
- 99Klemen MihelakG
- 7Vakhtang ChanturishviliD
- 18Martin CedidlaD
- 15Dušan PavlovićD
- 20Jiří SlámaD
- 24Dominik HollýM
- 13Richard SedláčekM
- 25Sebastian NebylaM
- 17Saidou Alioum MoubarakF
- 9Antonín RůsekF
- 21Matěj PolidarF
- 36Garang KuolM
- 33Michal KukučkaG
- 40Vojtěch ReinerG
- 57Filip NovákD
- 6Nelson OkekeM
- 8Filip ZorvanM
- 12David NykrinD
- 14Daniel SoučekD
- 10Jan SuchanM
Form going into Riga vs FK Jablonec
Riga
UEFA Europa Conference League
- D1-1away to Pafos22 October 2026
- D1-1Kairat Almaty15 October 2026
FK Jablonec
UEFA Europa Conference League
- D0-0Brighton22 October 2026
- L2-3away to SC Freiburg15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Riga and FK Jablonec drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Jablonec at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Reginaldo Ramires (penalty) 34' for Riga, S. Nebyla 49' for FK Jablonec. On expected goals it finished 1.32–0.90.
How the call on Riga v FK Jablonec has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 22% / 24% / 54% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is FK Jablonec's chance of winning, down 13 points.
- Riga win31%▲ +9
- Draw28%▲ +4
- FK Jablonec win41%▼ −13
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.