Twente vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Twente 3-1 Pafos.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Twente, 26% draw, 17% Pafos — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Twente vs Pafos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Joël DrommelG
- 28Bart van RooijD
- 3Robin PröpperD
- 4Ruud NijstadD
- 29Aske AdelgaardD
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM
- 11Daan RotsM
- 10Younes TahaM
- 8Daouda WeidmannM
- 27Sondre ØrjasæterM
- 9Wout WeghorstF
- 22Remko PasveerG
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
- 2Michał RosiakD
- 39Jip MeilinkD
- 14Kristian HlynssonM
- 18Jordy BawuahM
- 20Thomas Van den BeltM
- 24Krzysztof KurowskiD
- 26Benjamin NagelM
- 99Radosław MajeckiG
- 7BrunoD
- 3Samy MmaeeD
- 4David LuizD
- 14Nikolas IoannouD
- 30Vlad DragomirM
- 26Ivan ŠunjićM
- 50Alexandre BritoM
- 77João CorreiaM
- 12Ken SemaM
- 18LelêF
- 71Michalis PapastylianouG
- 82Petros PetrouG
- 61Melinos KaisD
- 72Kosmas IoannouD
- 6GugaM
- 8Domingos QuinaM
- 60Christos EvzonasM
- 33Anderson SilvaF
- 42Georgios MichaelM
Form going into Twente vs Pafos
Twente
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W4-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC22 October 2026
- W1-0FC Thun15 October 2026
Pafos
UEFA Europa Conference League
- D1-1Riga22 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atalanta15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 30 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Twente and Pafos
Twente
GoalsAssists
- M. Pjaca41
- D. Weidmann35
Pafos
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Twente beat Pafos 3–1. The model had made a win for Twente its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lele 39' for Pafos, R. Nijstad 62' for Twente, S. Orjasaeter 76' for Twente, D. Weidmann 82' for Twente. Sent off: Lele (Pafos) 64'. On expected goals it finished 4.33–0.91.
How the call on Twente v Pafos has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 57% / 26% / 17%: the biggest move is Twente's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Twente win57%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Pafos win17%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Twente's most recent league matches and Pafos's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.