14 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04 3. Liga prediction & result

Carl-Benz Stadion, Mannheim
Referee: Timon Oliver Schulz
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Waldhof Mannheim 0-3 FC Ingolstadt 04.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Waldhof Mannheim, 26% draw, 26% FC Ingolstadt 04 — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Waldhof Mannheim at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Waldhof Mannheim0%Draw1%FC Ingolstadt 0499%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Maximilian Thalhammer
14'
Rui Tomás Faustino Pinto da Mota
34'
🔁Leroy-Jacques Mickelsout: Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa Pessoa
45'
57'
Lukas Fröde
59'
⚽Lars Lokotschassist: Keanan Bennetts
63'
🔁Dennis Kayginout: Obed Chidindu Ugondu
63'
🔁Keanan Bennettsout: Josef Ganda
64'
⚽Max Plath
67'
🔁benjamin kanuricout: Frederik Carlsen
67'
🔁Lukas Frödeout: Vinko Sapina
🔁Julian Ulbrichtout: Gonçalo Gregório
70'
🔁Lovis Frederik Bierschenkout: Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee
70'
🔁Lukas Klünterout: Jid Okeke
70'
77'
🔁Max Plathout: Yannick Deichmann
83'
Josef Ganda
88'
⚽Obed Chidindu Ugonduassist: Linus Rosenlocher
90+1'
Vinko Sapina

Match stats — Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04

43%Possession57%
3Shots15
1On target6
3Corners7

Line-ups

Waldhof Mannheim 4-3-3
  • 1T. NijhuisG
  • 24L. KlünterD
  • 15C. KammerknechtD
  • 14Oluwaseun God Power Osaro OgbemudiaD
  • 17Owono Darnell KeumoD
  • 7L. BierschenkM
  • 8M. ThalhammerM
  • 21J. RieckmannM
  • 12V. ThillF
  • 10J. UlbrichtF
  • 23L. MickelsF
Substitutes
  • 13T. BoydF
  • 11Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa PessoaF
  • 28D. MichelM
  • 29N. X. Muteba NTumbaF
  • 16J. NiemannG
  • 25Jid OkekeD
  • 3Moritz PolteD
  • 37N. Sarenren BazeeF
  • 9Gonçalo GregórioF
Coach: Rui Mota
FC Ingolstadt 04 4-1-4-1
  • 47D. KleinG
  • 14Max PlathD
  • 6G. AntzoulasD
  • 15J. ScholzD
  • 19L. RosenlöcherD
  • 10D. KayginM
  • 18K. BennettsM
  • 34L. FrödeM
  • 37B. KanurićM
  • 28N. VelupillayM
  • 13L. LokotschF
Substitutes
  • 8F. CarlsenM
  • 4Elias DeckerD
  • 20Y. DeichmannD
  • 5Emre GülM
  • 1M. PonathG
  • 7Seo Jong-MinF
  • 17O. UgonduF
  • 41V. ŠapinaM
Coach: A. Beierlorzer

Form going into Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04

Waldhof Mannheim

All competitions we cover

  • W5-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10 October 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04

All competitions we cover

  • L2-4SV Wehen11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Waldhof Mannheim136162320+319
5FC Ingolstadt 04136341919021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04

  • 16 May 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 5–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
  • 20 December 2025Waldhof Mannheim 2–2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
  • 19 January 2025Waldhof Mannheim 0–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
  • 4 August 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
  • 5 May 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga

Leading scorers: Waldhof Mannheim and FC Ingolstadt 04

Waldhof Mannheim

GoalsAssists

  • J. Ulbricht42
  • T. Boyd41

FC Ingolstadt 04

GoalsAssists

  • O. Ugondu40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Ingolstadt 04 won 3–0 at Waldhof Mannheim. The model had leaned towards a win for Waldhof Mannheim at 48% and given a win for FC Ingolstadt 04 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lars Lokotsch 59' for FC Ingolstadt 04, Max Plath 64' for FC Ingolstadt 04, Obed Chidindu Ugondu 88' for FC Ingolstadt 04. Sent off: Maximilian Thalhammer (Waldhof Mannheim) 14'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Waldhof Mannheim a 9.7% chance to finish in the top four: 11.5% after a win, 7.6% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.6%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For FC Ingolstadt 04 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.4% going in: 15.9% after a win, 23.3% after a draw, 27.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.9%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Waldhof Mannheim v FC Ingolstadt 04 has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Waldhof Mannheim's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Waldhof Mannheim win48%▲ +9
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. FC Ingolstadt 04 win26%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.