Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Verl 2-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Verl, 25% draw, 26% SSV Jahn Regensburg — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Verl at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Line-ups
- 1T. SchlieckG
- 34Janne BernerD
- 22N. KönigD
- 5Nick SeidelD
- 19N. KijewskiD
- 30A. MešanovićM
- 6J. EzeM
- 8D. WaidnerM
- 20A. LeipoldF
- 21M. ClausenF
- 25T. HeikeF
- 29Emmanuel BambaM
- 9A. JapaurF
- 26A. FótiM
- 11M. KaubeM
- 14P. LehmannD
- 17Y. OttoM
- 32F. PekruhlG
- 23K. RabihićF
- 18F. WessigM
- 1H. HermannG
- 37Leopold WurmD
- 5L. MühlD
- 31L. MätzlerD
- 25N. OliveiraM
- 35S. HingerlM
- 29A. FeinM
- 7O. SchönfelderM
- 8D. PhilippF
- 27L. HermesF
- 10N. BoujellabF
- 26B. BauerD
- 34P. HobschF
- 21Z. JánóM
- 44M. KarbsteinD
- 13E. MajetschakM
- 20J. PosseltF
- 23M. SchmittG
- 40J. SeiboldM
- 11M. WörnerF
Form going into Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Verl
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf11 October 2026
SSV Jahn Regensburg
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Havelse10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Verl | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
- 3 March 2026Verl 1–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
- 28 September 2025SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Verl3. Liga
- 20 January 2024Jahn Regensburg 1–1 Verl3. Liga
- 20 August 2023Verl 1–2 Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
Leading scorers: Verl and SSV Jahn Regensburg
Verl
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
SSV Jahn Regensburg
GoalsAssists
- L. Hermes62
- N. Boujellab34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Verl and SSV Jahn Regensburg drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Verl at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lucas Hermes 38' for SSV Jahn Regensburg, Oscar Schoenfelder 43' for SSV Jahn Regensburg, Dennis Waidner 65' for Verl, Dennis Waidner 73' for Verl.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Verl a 18.8% chance to finish in the top four: 21.7% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.3%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
For SSV Jahn Regensburg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.8% going in: 11.2% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 5.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.9%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Verl v SSV Jahn Regensburg has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Verl's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Verl win49%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- SSV Jahn Regensburg win26%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.