Regular Season - 17 · 27 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

NAC Breda vs Den Bosch Eerste Divisie prediction

Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

Our model says: NAC Breda 1–0 Den Bosch

The model makes it 53% NAC Breda, 25% draw, 22% Den Bosch — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: NAC Breda 1.85, Den Bosch 0.99.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to NAC Breda: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. NAC Breda's rating is built from 15 Eerste Divisie matches and Den Bosch's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • NAC Breda are 4th on 28 points from 15 games; Den Bosch are 10th on 19 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Emmen.
  • Den Bosch have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Waalwijk.
  • Last 6 meetings: NAC Breda 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2024, ended Den Bosch 2–2 NAC Breda.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: NAC Breda vs Den Bosch

53%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

NAC Breda win Draw Den Bosch win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–06%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read NAC Breda first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

NAC Breda at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into NAC Breda vs Den Bosch

NAC Breda

Eerste Divisie

  • W4-2Emmen14 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Dordrecht6 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Jong PSV U212 November 2026
  • D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026

Den Bosch

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-4away to Waalwijk14 November 2026
  • D1-1Jong Utrecht7 November 2026
  • W5-0away to Emmen1 November 2026
  • D2-2MVV23 October 2026
  • W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026

What these results say

  • NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • NAC Breda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for NAC Breda had two goals or fewer.
  • Den Bosch scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Den Bosch conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Den Bosch had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4NAC Breda158432922+728
10Den Bosch155462426-219

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

NAC Breda

Chance to finish in the top eight · 90% today

Win 92%
Draw 88%
Defeat 86%

Den Bosch

Chance to finish in the top eight · 19% today

Win 25%
Draw 18%
Defeat 16%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs Den Bosch

  • 19 April 2024Den Bosch 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 24 November 2023NAC Breda 1–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 7 April 2023NAC Breda 2–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 28 October 2022Den Bosch 3–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 13 February 2022NAC Breda 2–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 3 December 2021Den Bosch 0–5 NAC BredaEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: NAC Breda and Den Bosch

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

Den Bosch

GoalsAssists

  • S. Karlsson Grach60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NAC Breda a 0.9% chance of the title and Den Bosch 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on NAC Breda v Den Bosch has moved

First published on 13 Nov at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is NAC Breda's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. NAC Breda win53%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Den Bosch win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

NAC Breda Den Bosch
0.64 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.78
1.85 Model expected goals (this match) 0.99

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for NAC Breda against 0.99 for Den Bosch. NAC Breda's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.78 for Den Bosch.

NAC Breda carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.25 for Den Bosch.

How the model reaches 53% for NAC Breda to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NAC Breda to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, NAC Breda's ratings add 4 points and Den Bosch's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. NAC Breda's ratings48%+4
  4. Den Bosch's ratings53%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

NAC BredaDen Bosch
15Matches15
8W 4D 3LRecord5W 4D 6L
29 1.9 per gameGoals scored24 1.6 per game
22 1.5 per gameGoals conceded26 1.7 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets2 of 15
2 of 15Failed to score3 of 15
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2
27 1.8 per gameYellow cards15 1.0 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape3-1-4-2 5×

NAC Breda at home · Den Bosch away

7Played7
4W 1D 2LRecord2W 0D 5L
15–12Goals for – against9–13
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: NAC Breda 15, Den Bosch 15.

NAC Breda scored 345367
Den Bosch conceded 233746

NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Den Bosch have let in 6 there.

Den Bosch scored 632256
NAC Breda conceded 333544

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

NAC Breda

  • vs FC Volendam6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
  • at Jong AZ11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
  • vs Roda18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
  • at Heracles10 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 16%

Den Bosch

  • vs Jong Ajax4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
  • at Roda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
  • at Dordrecht18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
  • vs De Graafschap8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.