Regular Season - 17 · 27 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk Eerste Divisie prediction

Seacon - De Koel, Venlo

Our model says: VVV Venlo 2–1 Waalwijk

The model makes it 43% VVV Venlo, 27% draw, 30% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: VVV Venlo 1.60, Waalwijk 1.25.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. VVV Venlo's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and Waalwijk's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • VVV Venlo are 3rd on 29 points from 15 games; Waalwijk are 9th on 20 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • VVV Venlo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Eindhoven.
  • Waalwijk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Den Bosch.
  • Last 6 meetings: VVV Venlo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended VVV Venlo 0–3 Waalwijk.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk

57%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

VVV Venlo win Draw Waalwijk win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–07%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read VVV Venlo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

VVV Venlo at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk

VVV Venlo

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2FC Eindhoven14 November 2026
  • D1-1Jong PSV U216 November 2026
  • W2-1away to MVV31 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
  • D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026

Waalwijk

Eerste Divisie

  • W4-0Den Bosch14 November 2026
  • D1-1away to FC OSS6 November 2026
  • L1-2Almere City FC30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to De Graafschap23 October 2026
  • D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026

What these results say

  • VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VVV Venlo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo.
  • Waalwijk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Waalwijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Waalwijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3VVV Venlo159243824+1429
9Waalwijk154832720+720

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

VVV Venlo

Chance to finish in the top eight · 90% today

Win 93%
Draw 90%
Defeat 86%

Waalwijk

Chance to finish in the top eight · 60% today

Win 69%
Draw 60%
Defeat 55%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk

  • 6 March 2026VVV Venlo 0–3 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
  • 5 December 2025Waalwijk 1–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 8 May 2021VVV Venlo 3–3 WaalwijkEredivisie
  • 5 December 2020Waalwijk 3–2 VVV VenloEredivisie
  • 25 January 2020Waalwijk 1–2 VVV VenloEredivisie
  • 3 August 2019VVV Venlo 3–1 WaalwijkEredivisie

Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Waalwijk

VVV Venlo

GoalsAssists

  • É. Clancy51
  • L. Schmidt51

Waalwijk

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VVV Venlo a 1.3% chance of the title and Waalwijk 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on VVV Venlo v Waalwijk has moved

First published on 13 Nov at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is VVV Venlo's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. VVV Venlo win43%▼ −5
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Waalwijk win30%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

VVV Venlo Waalwijk
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.62
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.60 Model expected goals (this match) 1.25

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 1.25 for Waalwijk. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.47 for Waalwijk.

VVV Venlo carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.42 for Waalwijk. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for VVV Venlo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for VVV Venlo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, VVV Venlo's ratings change nothing and Waalwijk's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. VVV Venlo's ratings44%±0
  4. Waalwijk's ratings43%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

VVV VenloWaalwijk
15Matches15
9W 2D 4LRecord4W 8D 3L
38 2.5 per gameGoals scored27 1.8 per game
24 1.6 per gameGoals conceded20 1.3 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets2 of 15
0 of 15Failed to score2 of 15
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
29 1.9 per gameYellow cards23 1.5 per game
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

VVV Venlo at home · Waalwijk away

8Played7
4W 2D 2LRecord1W 4D 2L
20–13Goals for – against6–9
2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: VVV Venlo 15, Waalwijk 15.

VVV Venlo scored 446967
Waalwijk conceded 352272

VVV Venlo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Waalwijk have let in 2 there.

Waalwijk scored 3315310
VVV Venlo conceded 447313

Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

VVV Venlo

  • at Vitesse4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
  • at Almere City FC11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
  • vs Jong Utrecht19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 58%
  • at Roda8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 30%

Waalwijk

  • vs Jong AZ4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 55%
  • at Jong Utrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
  • vs Jong Ajax18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 55%
  • at Emmen9 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.