24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result

Letzigrund Stadion
Referee: N. Gianforte
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Zurich 2-1 FC Luzern.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Zurich, 24% draw, 38% FC Luzern — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Zurich at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
Bung Meng Freimann
⚽Philippe Paulin Keny (pen)
26'
Miguel Reichmuth
49'
⚽Bung Meng Freimann (OG)
52'
56'
🔁Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreiraout: Levin Winkler
57'
🔁Tyron Owusuout: Nando Toggenburger
🔁Livano Comenenciaout: Mohamed Bangoura
64'
🔁Kevin Spadanudaout: Nevio Emanuele Di Giusto
64'
71'
⚽Oscar Kabwit Tshikombassist: Matteo Di Giusto
72'
🔁Oscar Kabwit Tshikombout: Aurelio Oehlers
72'
🔁Mio Zimmermannout: Rúben Dantas Fernandes
Philippe Paulin Keny
79'
🔁Leandro Schödlerout: Valon Berisha
89'

Match stats — FC Zurich vs FC Luzern

43%Possession57%
13Shots28
6On target6
2Corners9
1.79xG2.85

Goals against chances

FC Zurich2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Luzern1 from 2.85 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Zurich 4-1-4-1
  • 1Silas HuberG
  • 47Doron LichtensteinD
  • 2L. KamberiD
  • 42A. HackD
  • 44S. WalkerD
  • 21L. SchodlerM
  • 17K. SpadanudaM
  • 38M. ReichmuthM
  • 8L. ComenenciaM
  • 11U. EmmanuelM
  • 19P. KenyF
Substitutes
  • 18M. BangouraM
  • 23V. BerishaM
  • 14N. Di GiustoM
  • 48D. IhenduD
  • 13H. LindnerG
  • 49D. RamićF
  • 4J. SeguraD
  • 46J. StielM
  • 43N. VolkenD
Coach: M. Koller
FC Luzern 4-2-2-2
  • 30K. LeticaG
  • 20P. DornD
  • 13B. FreimannD
  • 46B. FreimannD
  • 14A. CigaņiksD
  • 80Mio ZimmermannM
  • 24T. OwusuM
  • 10Lucas FerreiraM
  • 11M. Di GiustoM
  • 16O. tshikombF
  • 19D. MikołajewskiF
Substitutes
  • 27L. VilligerF
  • 15N. ToggenburgerF
  • 1S. SimoniG
  • 7A. OehlersF
  • 21L. LüthiD
  • 5S. KneževićD
  • 9A. GrbićF
  • 22R. FernandesD
  • 29Levin WinklerM
Coach: J. Portmann

Form going into FC Zurich vs FC Luzern

FC Zurich

Super League

  • W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026

FC Luzern

Super League

  • L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
  • W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5FC Zurich136342526-121
9FC Luzern133462128-713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Zurich vs FC Luzern

  • 12 May 2026FC Luzern 1–0 FC ZurichSuper League
  • 14 February 2026FC Zurich 1–4 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 8 November 2025FC Zurich 3–2 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 3 August 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC ZurichSuper League
  • 15 March 2025FC Zurich 3–2 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 26 January 2025FC Luzern 3–1 FC ZurichSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Zurich and FC Luzern

FC Zurich

GoalsAssists

  • U. Emmanuel63
  • P. Keny61

FC Luzern

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mikołajewski43
  • M. Di Giusto43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Zurich beat FC Luzern 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Zurich at 38%. The goals: Philippe Paulin Keny (penalty) 26' for FC Zurich, Bung Meng Freimann (own goal) 52' for FC Zurich, Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb 71' for FC Luzern. On expected goals it finished 1.79–2.85.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Zurich a 31.4% chance to finish in the top six: 42.4% after a win, 28.8% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.4%, 11 points higher than before the match.

For FC Luzern the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 44.8% going in: 57.3% after a win, 43.0% after a draw, 33.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.2%, 11.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Zurich v FC Luzern has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 33% / 25% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 24% / 38%: the biggest move is FC Zurich's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. FC Zurich win38%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. FC Luzern win38%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.