4 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Referee: Irfan Peljto, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Full time1 – 2

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Club Brugge KV.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% PSV Eindhoven, 23% draw, 32% Club Brugge KV — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PSV Eindhoven at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PSV Eindhoven0%Draw6%Club Brugge KV94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Nicolo Tresoldiassist: Joaquin Seys
28'
Carlos Forbs
36'
🔁Jan Virgili Tenasout: Félix Lemaréchal
⚽Kodai Sano
54'
65'
⚽Carlos Forbsassist: Joaquin Seys
🔁Ruben van Bommelout: Ricardo Pepi
69'
73'
Hugo Vetlesen
81'
Jorne Spileers
81'
🔁Nicolo Tresoldiout: Romeo Vermant
81'
🔁Hugo Vetlesenout: Mamadou Diakhon
🔁Filip Kostićout: Esmir Bajraktarević
84'
87'
🔁Carlos Forbsout: Hugo Siquet
🔁Sven Mijnansout: Mikkel Bro Hansen
90'

Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV

62%Possession38%
27Shots10
9On target3
8Corners5
2.95xG1.78

Goals against chances

PSV Eindhoven1 from 2.95 xGless than the chances were worth
Club Brugge KV2 from 1.78 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1
  • 32M. KovářG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 18F. KostićD
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 17Mauro JúniorM
  • 5I. PerišićM
  • 21S. MijnansM
  • 7R. van BommelM
  • 20G. TilF
Substitutes
  • 23M. HansenF
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 27D. ManF
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 9R. PepiF
  • 35A. SantosM
  • 25K. SildilliaD
Coach: P. Bosz
Club Brugge KV 4-1-4-1
  • 1Y. SommerG
  • 64K. SabbeD
  • 58J. SpileersD
  • 44B. MecheleD
  • 65J. SeysD
  • 8F. PottsM
  • 9Carlos ForbsM
  • 10H. VetlesenM
  • 20H. VanakenM
  • 11Jan VirgiliM
  • 7N. TresoldiF
Substitutes
  • 62L. AudoorM
  • 32M. DamsD
  • 67M. DiakhonF
  • 29N. JackersG
  • 3Lee Han-BeomD
  • 80F. LemaréchalM
  • 39M. RobberechtsF
  • 41H. SiquetD
  • 16C. TsawaM
Coach: I. Leko

Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV

PSV Eindhoven

UEFA Champions League

  • W1-0away to FC Porto20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to RB Leipzig13 October 2026
  • D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026

Club Brugge KV

UEFA Champions League

  • W3-0Lens21 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Inter13 October 2026
  • L2-3Aston Villa8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24PSV Eindhoven411234-14
9Club Brugge KV4301117+49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV

  • 13 July 2024PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Club Brugge KVFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 January 2020PSV Eindhoven 1–2 Club Brugge KVFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Club Brugge KV

PSV Eindhoven

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Club Brugge KV

GoalsAssists

  • N. Tresoldi50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club Brugge KV won 2–1 at PSV Eindhoven. The model had leaned towards a win for PSV Eindhoven at 45% and given a win for Club Brugge KV 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolo Tresoldi 25' for Club Brugge KV, Kodai Sano 54' for PSV Eindhoven, Carlos Forbs 65' for Club Brugge KV. On expected goals it finished 2.95–1.78.

How the call on PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV has moved

First published on 21 Oct at 39% / 23% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 23% / 32%: the biggest move is PSV Eindhoven's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. PSV Eindhoven win45%▲ +6
  2. Draw23%=
  3. Club Brugge KV win32%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.