4 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Referee: Marco Guida, Italy
Full time2 – 3

Final score: RB Leipzig 2-3 Manchester City.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% RB Leipzig, 24% draw, 41% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Manchester City at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Christoph Baumgartner
17'
Ridle Baku
33'
37'
⚽Castello Junior Lukeba (OG)
Neil El Aynaoui
48'
⚽Ridle Bakuassist: Brajan Gruda
49'
🔁Christoph Baumgartnerout: Christopher Nkunku
57'
58'
⚽Enzo Fernándezassist: Iliman Ndiaye
⚽Antonio Nusaassist: Christopher Nkunku
61'
64'
🔁Phil Fodenout: Jeremy Doku
🔁Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruzout: Tidiam Gomis
67'
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Rocco Reitz
73'
🔁Ridle Bakuout: Benjamin Henrichs
74'
🔁Neil El Aynaouiout: Nicolas Seiwald
74'
David Raum
77'
78'
⚽Erling Haalandassist: Elliot Anderson
79'
🔁Matheus Nunesout: Rúben Dias
83'
🔁Elliot Andersonout: Ayyoub Bouaddi
83'
🔁Enzo Fernándezout: Mateo Kovačić
83'
🔁Iliman Ndiayeout: Allan Andrade Elias
88'
Jeremy Doku
90+4'
Abdukodir Khusanov

Match stats — RB Leipzig vs Manchester City

36%Possession64%
14Shots12
6On target5
5Corners3
0.91xG2.26

Goals against chances

RB Leipzig2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Manchester City3 from 2.26 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

RB Leipzig 4-3-3
  • 26M. VandevoordtG
  • 17R. BakuD
  • 4W. OrbánD
  • 23C. LukebaD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 21N. El AynaouiM
  • 14C. BaumgartnerM
  • 6E. BanzuziM
  • 10B. GrudaF
  • 40RômuloF
  • 7A. NusaF
Substitutes
  • 11J. BakayokoF
  • 13N. SeiwaldM
  • 20R. ReitzM
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 28C. NkunkuF
  • 30A. MaksimovićM
  • 3M. EstèveD
  • 27T. GomisF
  • 39B. HenrichsD
Coach: M. Demichelis
Manchester City 4-1-4-1
  • 1G. DonnarummaG
  • 27Matheus NunesD
  • 45A. KhusanovD
  • 6M. GuéhiD
  • 33N. O'ReillyD
  • 5E. AndersonM
  • 47P. FodenM
  • 17E. FernándezM
  • 10R. CherkiM
  • 7I. NdiayeM
  • 9E. HaalandF
Substitutes
  • 75F. SambaM
  • 28G. RulliG
  • 82R. LewisD
  • 8M. KovačićM
  • 24J. GvardiolD
  • 11J. DokuF
  • 3Rúben DiasD
  • 32A. BouaddiM
  • 13M. BettinelliG
Coach: E. Maresca

Form going into RB Leipzig vs Manchester City

RB Leipzig

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-4away to Real Madrid21 October 2026
  • W1-0PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Como10 September 2026

Manchester City

UEFA Champions League

  • W5-1AEK Athens FC20 October 2026
  • L2-4Paris Saint Germain14 October 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Porto8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
30RB Leipzig4103511-63
7Manchester City4301127+59

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Manchester City

  • 28 November 2023Manchester City 3–2 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League
  • 4 October 2023RB Leipzig 1–3 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
  • 14 March 2023Manchester City 7–0 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League
  • 22 February 2023RB Leipzig 1–1 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
  • 7 December 2021RB Leipzig 2–1 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
  • 15 September 2021Manchester City 6–3 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League

The full RB Leipzig vs Manchester City record →

Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and Manchester City

RB Leipzig

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Manchester City

GoalsAssists

  • E. Haaland50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Manchester City won 3–2 at RB Leipzig. The model had made a win for Manchester City its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Castello Junior Lukeba (own goal) 37' for Manchester City, Ridle Baku 49' for RB Leipzig, Enzo Fernández 58' for Manchester City, Antonio Nusa 61' for RB Leipzig, Erling Haaland 78' for Manchester City. On expected goals it finished 0.91–2.26.

How the call on RB Leipzig v Manchester City has moved

First published on 21 Oct at 33% / 24% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 35% / 24% / 41%: the biggest move is RB Leipzig's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. RB Leipzig win35%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%=
  3. Manchester City win41%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.