Plzen vs Pardubice Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 1-2 Pardubice.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Plzen, 22% draw, 19% Pardubice — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Plzen at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Pardubice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44F. WiegeleG
- 29A. GabrielD
- 40S. DwehD
- 98F. PrebslD
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 17P. HrošovskýM
- 6L. ČervM
- 99A. MemićM
- 20Jiří Maxim PanošM
- 9D. VišinskýM
- 25C. KabongoF
- 7S. LawalF
- 2T. PališčákD
- 19C. SouaréM
- 1D. ŤapajG
- 12A. SojkaM
- 36S. PirgiÄM
- 10M. ToureF
- 3D. VavroD
- 23B. FaalF
- 46V. NeumanG
- 15E. GodwinD
- 33D. HalinskýD
- 37D. KrčíkD
- 40T. BoledoviÄD
- 6M. IchaM
- 19M. HlavatýM
- 90G. BotosM
- 20A. TankoF
- 17V. DrchalF
- 35S. ĎatkoF
- 11J. ZimaM
- 12J. TrédlD
- 21M. TraoreD
- 9D. SmékalF
- 27M. ReilD
- 43J. NoslinD
- 25R. MahutaD
- 16T. JelínekM
- 66Arouna Abdala OuattaraM
Form going into Plzen vs Pardubice
Plzen
Czech Liga
- W3-2away to FK Jablonec18 October 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026
Pardubice
Czech Liga
- W3-0Zlin17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Plzen | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 20 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Pardubice
- 19 April 2026Plzen 0–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 18 July 2025Pardubice 1–5 PlzenCzech Liga
- 9 March 2025Pardubice 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga
- 6 October 2024Plzen 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 2 March 2024Pardubice 2–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 24 September 2023Plzen 6–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Pardubice
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić46
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pardubice won 2–1 at Plzen. The model had leaned towards a win for Plzen at 59% and given a win for Pardubice 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Victor Samuel 22' for Pardubice, Christopher Kabongo (own goal) 39' for Pardubice, Amar Memić 49' for Plzen. On expected goals it finished 2.70–1.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Plzen a 96.1% chance to finish in the top ten: 97.6% after a win, 94.9% after a draw, 93.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.4%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.
For Pardubice the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 27.8% going in: 40.2% after a win, 27.5% after a draw, 24.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.2%, 12.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.