25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Sparta Praha vs Slovácko Czech Liga prediction & result

epet ARENA, Prague
Referee: Antonin Bohata
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Sparta Praha 5-1 Slovácko.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Sparta Praha, 21% draw, 13% Slovácko — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sparta Praha at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sparta Praha99%Draw1%Slovácko0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jonatan Braut Brunesassist: Patrik Vydra
14'
⚽Jonatan Braut Brunesassist: Ki-Jana Hoever
31'
⚽Jonatan Braut Brunesassist: Andy Irving
37'
45'
🔁Marek Havlíkout: Pavel Juroska
⚽Andy Irvingassist: Ki-Jana Hoever
47'
58'
🔁Lukas Vorlickyout: Jan Fiala
58'
🔁Milan Rundićout: Tihomir Kostadinov
59'
⚽Tihomir Kostadinovassist: Pavel Juroska
🔁Ki-Jana Hoeverout: Pavel Kadeřábek
63'
🔁Josimar Alcocerout: Matej Jurasek
63'
🔁Sivert Heggheim Mannsverkout: Hugo Sochurek
63'
⚽Jonatan Braut Brunes
71'
73'
🔁Gibril Sossehout: Alan Marinelli
🔁Loïc Mbe Sohout: Jakub Martinec
75'
77'
🔁Michal Trávníkout: Filip Hruška
🔁Jonatan Braut Brunesout: Matyáš Vojta
80'
80'
Filip Hruška
82'
Andrej Stojchevski
83'
Simon Sloncik
Hugo Sochurek
87'

Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Slovácko

63%Possession37%
24Shots11
12On target5
4Corners1
1.91xG1.15

Goals against chances

Sparta Praha5 from 1.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Slovácko1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovčíkG
  • 25K. HoeverD
  • 22L. Mbe SohD
  • 6T. GuddalD
  • 15V. VitályosD
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 20S. MannsverkM
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 26P. VydraM
  • 7J. AlcócerM
  • 14J. Braut BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 5Santiago EnemeM
  • 30J. ZelenýD
  • 21J. GrimaldoF
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 31M. JurásekM
  • 3P. KadeřábekD
  • 4J. MartinecD
  • 38H. SochurekM
  • 2M. SuchomelD
Coach: Brian Priske
Slovácko 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. HečaG
  • 21Š. SlončíkD
  • 3M. RundićD
  • 19Tomáš KrálD
  • 15P. BlahútM
  • 16G. SossehM
  • 10M. TrávníkM
  • 6M. ŠviderskýM
  • 27A. DolžnikovM
  • 72L. VorlickýM
  • 20M. HavlíkF
Substitutes
  • 33A. UrbanG
  • 4A. StojchevskiD
  • 28L. PriorD
  • 9A. MarinelliF
  • 26T. KostadinovM
  • 77P. JuroškaM
  • 17F. HruskaM
  • 34P. HalouskaG
  • 18J. FialaF
Coach: J. Jelinek

Form going into Sparta Praha vs Slovácko

Sparta Praha

Czech Liga

  • D0-0away to Baník Ostrava18 October 2026
  • W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026

Slovácko

Czech Liga

  • L1-2Zbrojovka Brno18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Slovan Liberec11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Sparta Praha147342614+1224
15Slovácko142481326-1310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Slovácko

  • 15 March 2026Sparta Praha 5–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 19 October 2025Slovácko 0–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 2 February 2025Slovácko 0–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 24 August 2024Sparta Praha 2–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 5 May 2024Slovácko 2–4 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
  • 25 February 2024Slovácko 1–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Slovácko

Sparta Praha

GoalsAssists

  • J. Braut Brunes62
  • J. Mercado51
  • J. Alcócer41

Slovácko

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sparta Praha beat Slovácko 5–1. The model had made a win for Sparta Praha its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Jonatan Braut Brunes 14' for Sparta Praha, Jonatan Braut Brunes 31' for Sparta Praha, Jonatan Braut Brunes 37' for Sparta Praha, Andy Irving 47' for Sparta Praha, Tihomir Kostadinov 59' for Slovácko, Jonatan Braut Brunes 71' for Sparta Praha. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sparta Praha a 7.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 8.1% after a win, 4.6% after a draw, 3.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

For Slovácko the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 62.1% going in: 47.8% after a win, 60.3% after a draw, 64.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.3%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sparta Praha v Slovácko has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 68% / 20% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 66% / 21% / 13%: the biggest move is Sparta Praha's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sparta Praha win66%▼ −2
  2. Draw21%▲ +1
  3. Slovácko win13%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.