18 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani Super Liga prediction & result

Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade
Full time5 – 1

Final score: FK Crvena Zvezda 5-1 Mladost Lucani.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% FK Crvena Zvezda, 17% draw, 8% Mladost Lucani — fair odds of 1.33, 5.88 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FK Crvena Zvezda at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Crvena Zvezda99%Draw1%Mladost Lucani0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mohammad Abu Fani
36'
⚽Aleksandar Kataiassist: Mahmudu Bajo
43'
⚽Marko Arnautović
47'
Matej Strika
51'
⚽Mohammad Abu Fani
56'
🔁Mohammad Abu Faniout: Kim Ye-geon
62'
🔁Kristiyan Balovout: Mirko Ivanić
62'
62'
🔁Vasil Tašovskiout: David Djokic
62'
🔁Jovan ciricout: Vukasin Markovic
🔁Muhammed Cham Saracevicout: Rade Krunić
72'
🔁Mahmudu Bajoout: Timi Elsnik
72'
⚽Osman Bukari
73'
75'
🔁mihailo todosijevicout: ognjen bondzulic
76'
🔁Vukašin Jovanovićout: Taras Bondarenko
77'
⚽Vukasin Markovic
⚽Timi Elsnikassist: Mirko Ivanić
79'
🔁Marko Arnautovićout: Andrej Sibinovic
79'
86'
🔁Nemanja Petrovićout: Nenad Radić

Match stats — FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani

84%Possession16%
36Shots4
12On target1
10Corners1
6.02xG0.52

Goals against chances

FK Crvena Zvezda5 from 6.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Mladost Lucani1 from 0.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda 3-1-4-2
  • 50S. RadanovićG
  • 30F. Tebo UchennaD
  • 13M. VeljkovićD
  • 27M. StrikaD
  • 6M. BajoM
  • 14O. BukariM
  • 70M. ChamM
  • 15M. Abu FaniM
  • 8K. BalovM
  • 7M. ArnautovićF
  • 10A. KataiF
Substitutes
  • 9B. DiengF
  • 21T. ElšnikM
  • 45S. GudeljD
  • 77I. GutešaG
  • 4M. IvanićM
  • 19Kim Ye-geonM
  • 33R. KrunićM
  • 37V. LučićM
  • 3Y. NakayamaD
Coach: Riera
Mladost Lucani 5-4-1
  • 99Ž. SamčovićG
  • 44M. CvetkovićD
  • 33V. JovanovićD
  • 30N. ĆirkovićD
  • 12M. JoksimovićD
  • 3N. PetrovićD
  • 88Vasil TasovskiM
  • 32B. JovičićM
  • 5V. KijevčaninM
  • 25J. ĆirićM
  • 22JoãoF
Substitutes
  • 11O. BondžulićF
  • 14T. BondarenkoD
  • 1S. StamenkovićG
  • 24V. MarkovićM
  • 10O. KrsmanovicM
  • 36D. DjokicM
  • 77M. KerkezM
  • 27Nenad RadićM
  • 40Nikola ĆirovićM
Coach: R. Ćurčić

Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani

FK Crvena Zvezda

Super Liga

  • W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026

Mladost Lucani

Super Liga

  • D0-0OFK Beograd12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FK Crvena Zvezda151410386+3243
9Mladost Lucani154651221-918

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani

  • 20 December 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
  • 15 August 2025Mladost Lucani 1–4 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 24 May 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
  • 30 November 2024Mladost Lucani 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 27 July 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
  • 28 June 2024FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Mladost LucaniFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FK Crvena Zvezda and Mladost Lucani

FK Crvena Zvezda

GoalsAssists

  • B. Dieng50
  • V. Kostov43
  • A. Katai34

Mladost Lucani

GoalsAssists

  • Vasil Tasovski40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Mladost Lucani 5–1. The model had made a win for FK Crvena Zvezda its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Aleksandar Katai 43' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Marko Arnautović 47' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Mohammad Abu Fani 56' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Osman Bukari 73' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Vukasin Markovic 77' for Mladost Lucani, Timi Elsnik 79' for FK Crvena Zvezda. On expected goals it finished 6.02–0.52.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FK Crvena Zvezda a 92.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 93.8% after a win, 90.6% after a draw, 86.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.8%, 1 points higher than before the match.

For Mladost Lucani the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.5% going in: 11.4% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.7%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FK Crvena Zvezda v Mladost Lucani has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 65% / 22% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 75% / 17% / 8%: the biggest move is FK Crvena Zvezda's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. FK Crvena Zvezda win75%▲ +10
  2. Draw17%▼ −5
  3. Mladost Lucani win8%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.