18 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result

KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin
Referee: Jaroslaw Przybyl
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Zaglebie Lubin, 29% draw, 32% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zaglebie Lubin at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zaglebie Lubin96%Draw4%Jagiellonia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mateusz Grzybek
15'
🔁Mateusz Grzybekout: David Čolina
45'
45'
🔁Bartlomiej Wdowikout: Cezary Polak
45'
🔁Kamil Jóźwiakout: Rodrigo Conceição
62'
🔁Ousmane Sowout: Dimitris Rallis
🔁Filip Szymczakout: Jakub·Sypek
63'
69'
🔁Dušan Stojinovićout: Jeremy Agbonifo
•Marcel Regula
72'
⚽Sebastian Kerk (pen)
77'
79'
Bernardo Vital
🔁Sebastian Kerkout: Mateusz Dziewiatowski
83'
88'
🔁Bernardo Vitalout: Aleksandar·Cirkovic
Jakub·Sypek
90+1'
🔁Josip Ćorlukaout: Damian Michalski
90+6'

Match stats — Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia

36%Possession64%
12Shots15
4On target3
5Corners3
1.96xG1.46

Goals against chances

Zaglebie Lubin1 from 1.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Jagiellonia0 from 1.46 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zaglebie Lubin 3-4-2-1
  • 33Z. AlomerovićG
  • 5A. ŁawniczakD
  • 25M. NalepaD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 13M. GrzybekM
  • 39F. KocabaM
  • 8D. DąbrowskiM
  • 16J. ĆorlukaM
  • 37S. KerkM
  • 44M. RegułaM
  • 18F. SzymczakF
Substitutes
  • 6D. ČolinaD
  • 20M. DziewiatowskiM
  • 30D. HładunG
  • 26J. KolanM
  • 19S. ŁyczkoM
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 88M. MlinarićF
  • 31I. OrlikowskiD
  • 99C. PopielecM
Coach: L. Ojrzynski
Jagiellonia 4-3-3
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 3D. StojinovićD
  • 5Bernardo VitalD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 20B. WdowikD
  • 30O. SowM
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 72K. JóźwiakF
  • 11Jesús ImazF
  • 7K. SzmytF
Substitutes
  • 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
  • 9Dimitris RallisF
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
  • 70J. KucharskiM
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 14H. FinndellM
  • 8D. DrachalM
Coach: A. Siemieniec

Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia

Zaglebie Lubin

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026

Jagiellonia

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Zaglebie Lubin146531817+123
9Jagiellonia137061818021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia

  • 23 May 2026Jagiellonia 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 30 November 2025Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 11 July 2025Jagiellonia 0–1 Zaglebie LubinFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 April 2025Jagiellonia 1–3 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 19 October 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 20 April 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia

Zaglebie Lubin

GoalsAssists

  • M. Reguła50

Jagiellonia

GoalsAssists

  • N. Prelec42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zaglebie Lubin beat Jagiellonia 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Zaglebie Lubin at 39%. The goal: Sebastian Kerk (penalty) 77' for Zaglebie Lubin. On expected goals it finished 1.96–1.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zaglebie Lubin a 5.3% chance to finish in the top four: 7.4% after a win, 4.6% after a draw, 2.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Jagiellonia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.5% going in: 12.7% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.