Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 6-1 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Lech Poznan, 23% draw, 16% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Lech Poznan at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 59T. YegbeD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 77L. PalmaM
- 9M. IshakF
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 55Piotr BartczakD
- 90H. JanyszkaD
- 11D. HåkansM
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 1X. DziekońskiG
- 71W. DługoszD
- 23S. RubežićD
- 2A. MosórD
- 6M. PięczekD
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 30C. MenaM
- 32O. LingrM
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 14M. StępińskiF
- 86Simon GustafsonM
- 87R. MamlaG
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 10NonoM
- 8M. RemacleM
- 24B. SmolarczykD
- 44K. SotiriouD
- 99Daniel BakF
- 22M. FaßbenderF
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa
- W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 32 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
- 22 February 2026Korona Kielce 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 16 August 2025Lech Poznan 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 5 April 2025Lech Poznan 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 29 September 2024Korona Kielce 2–3 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 25 May 2024Lech Poznan 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 2 December 2023Korona Kielce 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- P. Wålemark73
- Pablo Rodríguez67
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lech Poznan beat Korona Kielce 6–1. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Patrick Walemark 4' for Lech Poznan, Pablo Rodriguez Delgado 6' for Lech Poznan, Mikael Ishak 23' for Lech Poznan, Pablo Rodriguez Delgado 45+4' for Lech Poznan, Mikael Ishak 55' for Lech Poznan, Camilo Mena 57' for Korona Kielce, Y. Agnero 90+1' for Lech Poznan. On expected goals it finished 2.32–1.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lech Poznan a 46.7% chance to win the league: 50.4% after a win, 39.7% after a draw, 37.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.4%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.
For Korona Kielce the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.2% going in: 9.7% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 5.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.0%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 23% / 16%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- Lech Poznan win61%▲ +10
- Draw23%▼ −4
- Korona Kielce win16%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.