18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd Super Liga prediction & result

Gradski Stadion, Novi Pazar
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Novi Pazar 1-2 IMT Novi Beograd.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Novi Pazar, 32% draw, 36% IMT Novi Beograd — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

IMT Novi Beograd at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Novi Pazar0%Draw2%IMT Novi Beograd98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jovan Marinkovic
9'
•Papa Amady Gadio
27'
Papa Amady Gadio
27'
29'
vasilije novicic
45+1'
Vladimir Radocaj
46'
nikola glisic
⚽Kaheim Dixonassist: Fejsal Mulic
48'
60'
⚽Charly Keitaassist: Julián Delmás
62'
🔁Ibrahima Kebeout: François Kamano
67'
⚽François Kamanoassist: Iván Martos
🔁Fejsal Mulicout: Johnson Agwom Dauda
68'
🔁bojan adzicout: Nikola Stanković
68'
70'
Moussa Sissako
Adem Ljajić
70'
🔁Ivan Davidovicout: Haris Kadric
83'
84'
🔁Tadija Cojicout: Djordje Radivojevic
90+2'
🔁nikola glisicout: V. Kiankaulua

Match stats — Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd

45%Possession55%
10Shots13
5On target7
4Corners5
0.97xG0.88

Goals against chances

Novi Pazar1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth
IMT Novi Beograd2 from 0.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Novi Pazar 4-2-3-1
  • 1Bogdan MatijaševićG
  • 32Bojan AdžićD
  • 4Allan De LeónD
  • 23J. MarinkovićD
  • 50T. DadićD
  • 6P. GadioM
  • 24I. DavidovićM
  • 10D. SadiM
  • 22A. LjajićM
  • 20K. DixonM
  • 99F. MulićF
Substitutes
  • 11Nikola SkrobonjaM
  • 12M. PrekovićG
  • 21M. PetrovićM
  • 3V. MirosavićD
  • 5S. MelentijevićD
  • 17M. MalekinušićF
  • 9V. KotzebueF
  • 18H. KadrićF
  • 26D. Johnson AgwomF
Coach: N. Lalatović
IMT Novi Beograd 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. ČančarevićG
  • 2Julián DelmásD
  • 5M. SissakoD
  • 3Iván MartosD
  • 45Ismael CasasD
  • 14I. KebeM
  • 22Vasilije NovicicM
  • 27V. RadočajM
  • 19T. CojicM
  • 7N. GlišićM
  • 99C. KeitaF
Substitutes
  • 65S. ŠapićD
  • 12Kadir GicicG
  • 40F. KamanoF
  • 94V. KiankauluaF
  • 66David UroševićD
  • 20D. RadivojevicF
  • 6Naum PerovicF
  • 28A. MilanovicD
  • 23D. AkrofiM
Coach: Z. Popović

Form going into Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd

Novi Pazar

Super Liga

  • L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026

IMT Novi Beograd

Super Liga

  • W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Novi Pazar155461516-119
4IMT Novi Beograd156541610+623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd

  • 7 December 2025IMT Novi Beograd 2–3 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 4 August 2025Novi Pazar 1–2 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 28 March 2025IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 3 November 2024Novi Pazar 3–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 7 May 2024IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 10 December 2023IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Novi Pazar and IMT Novi Beograd

Novi Pazar

GoalsAssists

  • K. Dixon52

IMT Novi Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • C. Keita32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

IMT Novi Beograd won 2–1 at Novi Pazar. The model had made a win for IMT Novi Beograd its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kaheim Dixon 48' for Novi Pazar, Charly Keita 60' for IMT Novi Beograd, François Kamano 67' for IMT Novi Beograd. Sent off: Papa Amady Gadio (Novi Pazar) 27'. On expected goals it finished 0.97–0.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novi Pazar a 12.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.8% after a win, 13.2% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.1%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.

For IMT Novi Beograd the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 45.2% going in: 54.3% after a win, 41.2% after a draw, 37.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.3%, 9.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.