6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

LFF stadionas, Vilnius
Full time2 – 5

Final score: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-5 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 20% draw, 46% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.94, 5.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 46% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Zalgiris Vilnius0%Draw1%HNK Hajduk Split99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yuri Kendysh
4'
5'
⚽M. Sego (pen)
14'
⚽Michele Šego (pen)
Petar Bosančić
25'
⚽N. Petkovicassist: S. Bilenkyi
34'
44'
⚽M. Sego
49'
🔁A. Van Hoorenbeeckout: R. Raci
51'
Rokas Pukštas
55'
⚽A. Pajazitiassist: M. Soticek
🔁I. Lytvynenkoout: M. Capan
65'
67'
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
68'
🔁A. Sanyangout: A. Sutalo
72'
⚽D. de Almeidaassist: A. Sutalo
75'
⚽R. Pukstas
🔁P. Golubickasout: N. Mihajlovic
76'
🔁N. Petkovicout: M. Vareika
76'
Deividas Šešplaukis
78'
78'
🔁R. Pukstasout: N. Sigur
78'
🔁D. de Almeidaout: E. Brruti
🔁P. Bosancicout: G. Turda
82'
🔁Y. Kendyshout: O. Verbickas
82'
⚽M. Capan
85'
90+4'
•Marin Šotiček

Match stats — FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split

48%Possession52%
5On target8
2Corners5

Line-ups

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. Sarkauskas
  • 18D. SesplaukisM
  • 4D. Koy Lupano
  • 15P. BosancicD
  • 21D. FrankeD
  • 20I. LytvynenkoM
  • 77Y. KendyshD
  • 10P. GolubickasM
  • 19S. BilenkyiF
  • 70B. TeixeiraM
  • 11N. PetkovicF
Substitutes
  • 1C. OlsesG
  • 5G. TurdaD
  • 6M. CapanM
  • 7N. MihajlovicM
  • 8L. AntalF
  • 9G. JaruseviciusM
  • 13K. UpstasD
  • 14M. SetkusD
  • 22O. VerbickasM
Coach: Andrius Skerla
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 23M. SoticekM
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 3R. GabricD
  • 8N. SigurD
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 19E. BrrutiM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Form going into FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

  • W7-2Dinamo Tbilisi30 July 2026
  • L0-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi23 July 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

  • L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Pafos30 July 2026
  • W2-0Pafos23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 6 August 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–5 HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: FK Zalgiris Vilnius and HNK Hajduk Split

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

No leading scorers listed yet.

HNK Hajduk Split

  • M. Šego4 goals
  • M. Livaja3 goals
  • M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.