6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC St. Gallen UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Sheriff Arena, Tiraspol
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Sheriff Tiraspol 1-3 FC St. Gallen.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Sheriff Tiraspol, 21% draw, 50% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 3.45, 4.76 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC St. Gallen at 50% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sheriff Tiraspol0%Draw5%FC St. Gallen95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁V. Frateaout: Sapata
61'
61'
🔁E. Owusuout: C. Witzig
61'
🔁A. Baldeout: A. Hunziker
61'
🔁B. Fazlijiout: L. Frokaj
63'
⚽A. Hunzikerassist: J. Ruiz
🔁D. Forovout: L. Jaures-Ulrich
69'
70'
⚽L. Frokajassist: C. Okoroji
73'
🔁L. Gortlerout: C. Konietzke
🔁S. Koneout: V. Nihaev
77'
🔁J. Asprilla Morenoout: J. Pineda
77'
80'
🔁L. Daschnerout: C. Kleine-Bekel
⚽J. Pineda
89'
90'
⚽C. Witzigassist: A. Hunziker

Match stats — Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC St. Gallen

32%Possession68%
15Shots26
7On target5
6Corners8

Line-ups

Sheriff Tiraspol 4-4-1-1
  • 1E. TimburG
  • 2M. OuedraogoD
  • 15B. CissD
  • 35B. FombaD
  • 6RaiD
  • 10V. FrateaM
  • 26D. KlasM
  • 76A. PergjoniM
  • 24D. ForovM
  • 99S. KoneF
  • 19J. Asprilla MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 28N. CebotariG
  • 21I. DyulgerovG
  • 90V. CostinM
  • 55V. CiumasuF
  • 29S. MagassoubaD
  • 17V. NihaevM
  • 77J. PinedaF
  • 22MotaD
  • 11SapataF
Coach: Victor Mihailov
FC St. Gallen 3-5-2
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
  • 74J. RuizD
  • 10L. DaschnerD
  • 36C. OkorojiD
  • 28H. VandermerschM
  • 16L. GortlerM
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 23B. FazlijiM
  • 47E. OwusuM
  • 31D. BesioF
  • 14A. BaldeF
Substitutes
  • 1L. Ati ZigiG
  • 35B. DumrathG
  • 7C. WitzigM
  • 3C. Kleine-BekelD
  • 9A. HunzikerF
  • 20L. Frokaj
  • 63C. KonietzkeM
  • 68M. Heydari
Coach: Enrico Maassen

Form going into Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC St. Gallen

Sheriff Tiraspol

  • L0-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv30 July 2026
  • L0-5Maccabi Tel Aviv23 July 2026

FC St. Gallen

  • W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Benfica30 July 2026
  • W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
  • W2-1Benfica23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC St. Gallen

  • 6 August 2026Sheriff Tiraspol 1–3 FC St. GallenUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Sheriff Tiraspol and FC St. Gallen

Sheriff Tiraspol

No leading scorers listed yet.

FC St. Gallen

  • A. Hunziker3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.