Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Köln 1-2 Würzburger Kickers.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Fortuna Köln, 33% draw, 27% Würzburger Kickers — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fortuna Köln at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
Line-ups
- 1L. WinklerG
- 15David Haider Kamm Al-AzzaweD
- 2Kevin KrummeD
- 5Seymour FungerD
- 3M. FischerD
- 11G. StrauchM
- 20A. StanilewiczM
- 19T. BornemannM
- 7N. ThierM
- 30Romeo AigbekaenM
- 18H. Al GhaddiouiF
- 25B. ZichG
- 9E. WirtzF
- 38Bennit BrögerM
- 10R. GarcíaF
- 6T. GeerkensM
- 14C. HarenbrockM
- 17F. HeisterD
- 37J. MauseF
- 31Neo TelleD
- 33M. RajkovačićG
- 25D. MeiselD
- 16L. BreunigD
- 28E. FarahnakD
- 21L. HemmerichD
- 8D. KinsombiM
- 27Xaver KiefersauerM
- 6Namrud EmbayeM
- 7E. MutebaM
- 30T. BongaF
- 31T. KrausF
- 11D. BerishaF
- 5L. EberleD
- 37I. FranjićM
- 1Johann HipperG
- 22D. HägeleM
- 34Burak KarakayaD
- 19T. KastanarasF
- 9Jermain NischalkeF
- 13P. OchsM
Form going into Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga
- L0-1away to Preußen Münster25 October 2026
- L0-1Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026
Würzburger Kickers
3. Liga
- L0-4away to SV Meppen24 October 2026
- W2-0Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Havelse13 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 | Würzburger Kickers | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
- 27 April 2019FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 24 November 2018Fortuna Köln 0–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 7 April 2018FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 28 October 2017Fortuna Köln 2–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 18 March 2016FC Wurzburger Kickers 4–1 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 3 October 2015Fortuna Köln 0–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
Leading scorers: Fortuna Köln and Würzburger Kickers
Fortuna Köln
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Würzburger Kickers
GoalsAssists
- T. Bonga41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Würzburger Kickers won 2–1 at Fortuna Köln. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortuna Köln at 40% and given a win for Würzburger Kickers 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Pedro Eliot Narciso Muteba 26' for Würzburger Kickers, Romeo Aigbekaen (penalty) 44' for Fortuna Köln, Tarsis Bonga 72' for Würzburger Kickers.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Köln a 51.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 44.7% after a win, 55.5% after a draw, 60.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.9%, 9 points higher than before the match.
For Würzburger Kickers the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 55.1% going in: 46.9% after a win, 53.6% after a draw, 61.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.9%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.