31 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II 3. Liga prediction & result

Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg
Referee: Martin Wilke
Full time3 – 3

Final score: MSV Duisburg 3-3 Stuttgart II.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% MSV Duisburg, 22% draw, 17% Stuttgart II — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

MSV Duisburg at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

MSV Duisburg96%Draw4%Stuttgart II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lex-Tyger Lobingerassist: Conor Noss
5'
⚽Lex-Tyger Lobingerassist: Can Coskun
8'
⚽Aljaž Casarassist: Dominik Kother
11'
22'
🔁Nicolás Sessaout: Collin Schramm
27'
Oliver Rölke
37'
Joyeux Masanka Bungi
Tobias Fleckstein
39'
40'
⚽Alexander Groiss
45'
🔁Maximilian Tobias Herwerthout: Julian Lüers
45'
🔁Oliver Rölkeout: Eliot Bujupi
🔁Dominik Kotherout: Frederik Christensen
45'
45'
🔁Joyeux Masanka Bungi out: Ertugrul Yigit
65'
Veit Stange
🔁Lex-Tyger Lobingerout: Peter Remmert
65'
🔁Conor Nossout: Martin Ens
65'
Aljaž Casar
70'
70'
🔁Veit Stangeout: A. Janjic
Rasim Bulic
72'
73'
⚽Tim van der Leij (pen)
79'
Julian Lüers
Can Coskun
85'
🔁Aljaž Casarout: Max Besuschkow
85'
🔁Can Coskunout: Florian Krüger
89'
90+3'
⚽Eliot Bujupiassist: Julian Lüers

Match stats — MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II

43%Possession57%
8Shots11
5On target7
3Corners3

Line-ups

MSV Duisburg 3-4-2-1
  • 1M. BrauneG
  • 29J. BitterD
  • 5T. FlecksteinD
  • 40B. SchlickeD
  • 20N. JessenM
  • 8A. CasarM
  • 6R. BulićM
  • 27C. CoşkunM
  • 14C. NoßM
  • 11D. KotherM
  • 9L. LobingerF
Substitutes
  • 33T. StahlG
  • 19Ramien SafiF
  • 39P. RemmertF
  • 26F. KrügerF
  • 4Martin EnsD
  • 25D. BorkowskiM
  • 17M. BesuschkowM
  • 37P. SussekM
  • 3F. ChristensenD
Coach: D. Hirsch
Stuttgart II 4-3-3
  • 1Jerik von der FelsenG
  • 31V. StangeD
  • 4Maximilian Tobias HerwerthD
  • 29D. NothnagelD
  • 24Joyeux Masanka BungiD
  • 10N. SessaM
  • 6A. GroißM
  • 27Jarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento MalangaM
  • 7L. PennaF
  • 11Oliver RölkeF
  • 9T. van der LeijF
Substitutes
  • 22J. BockG
  • 38Eliot BujupiF
  • 17A. JanjicD
  • 18J. LuersM
  • 30J. MajchrzakF
  • 40P. ReinhardtD
  • 23Collin SchrammD
  • 19E. YigitM
Coach: N. Willig

Form going into MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II

MSV Duisburg

3. Liga

  • L1-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0424 October 2026
  • D1-1FC Viktoria Köln18 October 2026
  • W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026

Stuttgart II

3. Liga

  • L1-2Alemannia Aachen24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Fortuna Köln16 October 2026
  • W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2MSV Duisburg139223318+1529
12Stuttgart II135352223-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II

  • 18 January 2026Stuttgart II 0–4 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 2 August 2025MSV Duisburg 2–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
  • 12 April 2015Stuttgart II 1–2 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 4 October 2014MSV Duisburg 1–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
  • 4 April 2014MSV Duisburg 0–0 Stuttgart II3. Liga
  • 26 October 2013Stuttgart II 1–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga

Leading scorers: MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II

MSV Duisburg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Lobinger44
  • P. Remmert40

Stuttgart II

GoalsAssists

  • T. van der Leij40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for MSV Duisburg at 61% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Lex-Tyger Lobinger 5' for MSV Duisburg, Lex-Tyger Lobinger 8' for MSV Duisburg, Aljaž Casar 11' for MSV Duisburg, Alexander Groiss 40' for Stuttgart II, Tim van der Leij (penalty) 73' for Stuttgart II, Eliot Bujupi 90+3' for Stuttgart II. Sent off: Tobias Fleckstein (MSV Duisburg) 39'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave MSV Duisburg a 51.8% chance to win the league: 54.8% after a win, 48.2% after a draw, 43.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.2%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

For Stuttgart II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 21.8% going in: 13.5% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 23.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.4%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.