Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Havelse 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Havelse, 26% draw, 41% FC Ingolstadt 04 — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Line-ups
- 1T. OpitzG
- 15D. DuahD
- 4S. BelkahiaD
- 27I. NdukaD
- 22L. SommerM
- 12Eryk Artur GrzywaczM
- 33J. TugbenyoM
- 28R. VelascoM
- 10K. SchumacherM
- 9L. PaldinoF
- 11K. Okyere WriedtF
- 20Alexander GuiddirF
- 3M. LambyD
- 24Y. MausehundD
- 23R. MüllerM
- 7M. RichterM
- 5N. TauerM
- 19E. VoufackD
- 14Y. WardakM
- 25Fynn Ole WolterG
- 47D. KleinG
- 14Max PlathD
- 4Elias DeckerD
- 15J. ScholzD
- 19L. RosenlöcherD
- 34L. FrödeM
- 10D. KayginM
- 8F. CarlsenM
- 41V. ŠapinaM
- 28N. VelupillayM
- 17O. UgonduF
- 20Y. DeichmannD
- 16J. GandaF
- 5Emre GülM
- 37B. KanurićM
- 23J. MaljojokiD
- 18K. BennettsM
- 1M. PonathG
- 33D. SekulovicD
- 7Seo Jong-MinF
Form going into Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Havelse
3. Liga
- W3-2FC Saarbrücken25 October 2026
- D1-1away to SV Meppen18 October 2026
- D2-2Würzburger Kickers13 October 2026
FC Ingolstadt 04
3. Liga
- W2-1MSV Duisburg24 October 2026
- W1-0Rot-Weiß Essen17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Havelse | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04
- 21 February 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 3–2 Havelse3. Liga
- 17 September 2025Havelse 2–6 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
Leading scorers: Havelse and FC Ingolstadt 04
Havelse
GoalsAssists
- K. Okyere Wriedt32
FC Ingolstadt 04
GoalsAssists
- O. Ugondu40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Havelse and FC Ingolstadt 04 drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kwasi Okyere Wriedt 6' for Havelse, Obed Chidindu Ugondu 12' for FC Ingolstadt 04.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Havelse a 80.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 76.2% after a win, 82.8% after a draw, 84.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 82.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For FC Ingolstadt 04 the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 11.0% going in: 13.1% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.0%, 2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.