22 August 2026, 16:45 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Sparta Rotterdam, 23% draw, 41% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.78, 4.35 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Utrecht at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sparta Rotterdam0%Draw5%Utrecht95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽M. Diddenassist: Y. Cathline
⚽M. Youngassist: B. Kuipers
45'
46'
⚽A. Stepanovassist: N. Vesterlund
🔁N. Thorissonout: M. Zonneveld
62'
🔁B. Martins Indiout: M. van Bergen
62'
63'
🔁A. Alarconout: K. Paredes
⚽M. Zonneveldassist: S. Mito
67'
72'
🔁N. Ogidi Nwankwoout: P. Kloosterboer
73'
🔁Y. Cathlineout: A. Blake
73'
🔁A. Stepanovout: D. Min
76'
⚽A. Blake
77'
🔁S. Horemansout: G. Offerhaus
🔁M. Youngout: T. Quintero
79'
🔁R. van Cruijsenout: J. Ideho
79'
🔁J. Baasout: C. Terho
86'
⚽N. Verschurenassist: J. Ideho
90'

Match stats — Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht

56%Possession44%
14Shots16
5On target4
5Corners7
1.73xG1.92

Goals against chances

Sparta Rotterdam3 from 1.73 xGmore than the chances were worth
Utrecht3 from 1.92 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam 3-4-3
  • 1F. BednarekG
  • 3M. YoungD
  • 2N. VerschurenD
  • 4B. Martins IndiD
  • 7L. MartesM
  • 10S. MitoM
  • 6J. BaasM
  • 5B. KuipersM
  • 8R. van Cruijsen
  • 9N. ThorissonF
  • 11A. SantosF
Substitutes
  • 30R. SuurG
  • 20P. KuiperG
  • 12B. ReithD
  • 13T. QuinteroD
  • 14G. VianelloD
  • 18J. ToornstraM
  • 16A. RoaldsoyM
  • 21Y. Jaber el MaftahiM
  • 19M. ZonneveldF
Coach: Rogier Meijer
Utrecht 3-4-3
  • 1V. BarkasG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 21N. Ogidi Nwankwo
  • 23N. VesterlundM
  • 20D. de WitM
  • 34D. van den BergM
  • 92A. ZagreM
  • 11A. AlarconF
  • 18A. StepanovF
  • 10Y. CathlineF
Substitutes
  • 25M. BrouwerG
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 35V. PlantingaD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 14Z. IqbalM
  • 30K. ParedesM
  • 15A. BlakeF
  • 47E. C. OwenF
Coach: Anthony Correia

Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht

Sparta Rotterdam

  • W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026

Utrecht

  • L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Sparta Rotterdam61231013-35
14Utrecht61231119-85

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht

  • 22 August 2026Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 25 January 2026Utrecht 0–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 17 August 2025Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 14 May 2025Utrecht 1–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 3 November 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–4 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 23 May 2024Utrecht 3–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht

Sparta Rotterdam

  • M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assists

Utrecht

  • Artem Stepanov5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.