22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Heerenveen, 20% draw, 18% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Heerenveen at 62% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heerenveen0%Draw1%PEC Zwolle99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Ryan Thomas
50'
⚽N. Viergeverassist: D. Mbayo
61'
⚽K. Kostonsassist: D. Mbayo
🔁D. Properout: L. Smans
65'
🔁O. Braudeout: H. Petrov
66'
🔁M. Riveraout: L. Machine
66'
73'
🔁E. Sorensenout: I. Cissoko
77'
🔁D. Mbayoout: G. Reiziger
🔁R. Meerveldout: L. Brouwers
80'
87'
🔁T. Oostingout: T. Velthuis
87'
🔁K. Kostonsout: O. Velanas

Match stats — Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle

62%Possession38%
14Shots9
4On target2
4Corners1
0.76xG0.85

Goals against chances

Heerenveen0 from 0.76 xGless than the chances were worth
PEC Zwolle2 from 0.85 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 16M. LindayM
  • 6D. ProperM
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 10R. MeerveldM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
Substitutes
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 30T. SchreuderG
  • 28H. PetrovD
  • 17N. HoplandD
  • 23D. BladiD
  • 8L. BrouwersM
  • 14L. SmansM
  • 36N. CourtensM
  • 41J. ScholtenD
Coach: Robin Veldman
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchendelaarG
  • 3O. AertssenD
  • 28S. GravesD
  • 24N. ViergeverD
  • 33D. van der HaarD
  • 30R. ThomasM
  • 8T. SommerM
  • 11D. MbayoM
  • 25T. OostingM
  • 9E. SorensenM
  • 10K. KostonsF
Substitutes
  • 41D. VerduinG
  • 16T. de GraaffG
  • 4T. VelthuisD
  • 42D. RuwardD
  • 39M. Westerhuis
  • 34N. FichtingerM
  • 26J. Pereira da GamaM
  • 18O. VelanasM
  • 38G. RahajaanM
Coach: Henry Van Der Vegt

Form going into Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle

Heerenveen

  • D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026

PEC Zwolle

  • L1-3away to Twente16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Heerenveen613279-26
16PEC Zwolle6114617-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle

  • 22 August 2026Heerenveen 0–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 15 February 2026Heerenveen 4–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 28 November 2025PEC Zwolle 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 9 October 2025Heerenveen 4–1 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 February 2025PEC Zwolle 1–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 6 October 2024Heerenveen 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.