Göztepe vs Başakşehir Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Göztepe 1-2 Başakşehir.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Göztepe, 25% draw, 35% Başakşehir — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Göztepe at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Göztepe vs Başakşehir
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Arda ÖzçimenG
- 4Taha AltıkardeşD
- 3AllanD
- 26Malcom BokeleD
- 2Arda KurtulanM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 20Novatus MiroshiM
- 12Richard AkonnorM
- 8Alexis AntunesF
- 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
- 39JandersonF
- 7André HenriqueF
- 18Tino AnjorinM
- 6Alex MatosM
- 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
- 14Bekir Turaç BökeF
- 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
- 13Ege YildirimD
- 17Gökdeniz BayrakdarF
- 10Efkan BekiroğluM
- 98Deniz DilmenG
- 42Ömer Ali ŞahinerD
- 23Emin BayramD
- 27Ousseynou BaD
- 33Michał KarbownikD
- 8Olivier KemenM
- 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
- 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
- 14Eldor ShomurodovM
- 77Ivan BrnićM
- 9Davie SelkeF
- 10Edin VišćaM
- 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
- 6Onur BulutD
- 4Onur ErgünM
- 3Jerome OpokuD
- 1Volkan BabacanG
- 15Hamza GürelerD
- 20Umut GüneşM
- 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM
Form going into Göztepe vs Başakşehir
Göztepe
Süper Lig
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe31 October 2026
- W2-0Çorum FK25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kocaelispor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026
Başakşehir
Süper Lig
- W5-2Samsunspor1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Beşiktaş26 October 2026
- W2-1Gaziantep FK18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026
What these results say
- Göztepe won every one of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Göztepe had three goals or more.
- Başakşehir conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Göztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 | Başakşehir | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Göztepe vs Başakşehir
- 7 March 2026Başakşehir 2–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 5 October 2025Göztepe 1–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 28 April 2025Göztepe 4–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 30 November 2024Başakşehir 4–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 25 February 2023Göztepe 0–0 BaşakşehirFriendlies Clubs
- 20 December 2022Başakşehir 3–1 GöztepeTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Göztepe and Başakşehir
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan71
- André Henrique41
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Başakşehir won 2–1 at Göztepe. The model had leaned towards a win for Göztepe at 40% and given a win for Başakşehir 35%. The goals: Juan 18' for Göztepe, D. Selke 22' for Başakşehir, E. Visca 83' for Başakşehir. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.35.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Göztepe a 7.3% chance to finish in the top four: 9.3% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.5%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
For Başakşehir the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.7% going in: 21.4% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 12.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.4%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Göztepe v Başakşehir has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 25% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Göztepe's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Göztepe win40%▲ +4
- Draw25%=
- Başakşehir win35%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.