25 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Genk vs Standard Liege Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Cegeka Arena, Genk
Referee: J. Vergoote
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Genk 2-1 Standard Liege.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Genk, 27% draw, 26% Standard Liege — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Genk at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Genk98%Draw2%Standard Liege0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
I. Karamoko
⚽J. Ito
27'
33'
M. Epolo
36'
🔁S. Drammehout: L. Pirard
46'
🔁T. Mohrout: G. Mortensen
46'
🔁R. Fossoout: A. Zeqiri
46'
🔁I. Karamokoout: R. Touzghar
B. Heynen
58'
62'
A. Trouillet
🔁N. Adedeji-Sternbergout: A. Yokoyama
64'
65'
⚽A. Zeqiriassist: I. Hautekiet
🔁B. Tahirovicout: A. Bibout
70'
⚽A. Bibout
77'
82'
🔁D. Eckertout: B. Nsimba
🔁R. Durosinmiout: I. Bangoura
86'
🔁J. Itoout: J. Erenbjerg
86'
D. Heymans
90+5'

Match stats — Genk vs Standard Liege

68%Possession32%
24Shots11
6On target2
11Corners2
3.32xG1.48

Goals against chances

Genk2 from 3.32 xGless than the chances were worth
Standard Liege1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Genk 4-2-3-1
  • 28Lucca BrughmansG
  • 20Kevin AmaroD
  • 6Matte SmetsD
  • 44Josue Ndenge KongoloD
  • 18Joris KayembeD
  • 4Benjamin TahirovićM
  • 8Bryan HeynenM
  • 10Junya ItoM
  • 38Daan HeymansM
  • 32Noah Adedeji-SternbergM
  • 17Rafiu DurosinmiF
Substitutes
  • 30Ayumu YokoyamaF
  • 23Aaron BiboutF
  • 11Jeppe ErenbjergM
  • 21Ibrahima Sory BangouraM
  • 1Tobe LeysenG
  • 19Yaimar MedinaD
  • 25Milan RoganovićD
  • 5Christiaan RavychD
  • 56August De WannemackerM
Standard Liege 3-4-3
  • 1Matthieu EpoloG
  • 20Ibrahim KaramokoD
  • 25Ibe HautekietD
  • 4Dimitri LavalėeD
  • 13Marlon FosseyM
  • 80Ryan FossoM
  • 22Alexis TrouilletM
  • 7Tobias MohrM
  • 15Salieu DrammehF
  • 10Dennis Eckert AyensaF
  • 11Adnane AbidF
Substitutes
  • 21Lucas PirardG
  • 3Gustav MortensenD
  • 84Rayan TouzgharM
  • 9Andi ZeqiriF
  • 77Bruny NsimbaF
  • 29Daan DierckxD
  • 18Henry LawrenceD
  • 23Marco IlaimaharitraM
  • 19Sylvester JasperM

Form going into Genk vs Standard Liege

Genk

Jupiler Pro League

  • W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026

Standard Liege

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-1Charleroi11 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Genk114341815+315
8Standard Liege114341816+215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genk vs Standard Liege

  • 16 May 2026Standard Liege 0–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 25 April 2026Genk 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
  • 22 February 2026Genk 0–3 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
  • 10 August 2025Standard Liege 2–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 14 February 2025Standard Liege 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 4 December 2024Genk 2–1 Standard LiegeCup

Leading scorers: Genk and Standard Liege

Genk

GoalsAssists

  • R. Durosinmi60

Standard Liege

GoalsAssists

  • D. Eckert Ayensa71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Genk beat Standard Liege 2–1. The model had made a win for Genk its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Ito 27' for Genk, A. Zeqiri 65' for Standard Liege, A. Bibout 77' for Genk. Sent off: M. Epolo (Standard Liege) 33', D. Heymans (Genk) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 3.32–1.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Genk a 18.7% chance to finish in the top four: 21.7% after a win, 17.2% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.7%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Standard Liege the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 4.9% going in: 7.0% after a win, 5.0% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.