25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki I Liga prediction & result

Superauto.pl Stadion Slaski
Referee: M. Kochanek
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Ruch Chorzów 2-0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Ruch Chorzów, 28% draw, 26% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ruch Chorzów at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ruch Chorzów99%Draw1%Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Chrapekassist: P. Szwedzik
42'
⚽D. Szczepanassist: A. del Moral
55'
61'
🔁M. Ruszkiewiczout: H. Uzoigwe
🔁D. Szczepanout: A. Coscia
61'
69'
🔁D. Jaronout: H. Turski
69'
🔁J. Niewiadomskiout: J. Jedrasik
69'
🔁J. Zbrogout: B. Dembek
🔁P. Szwedzikout: S. Nagamatsu
70'
82'
B. Ciepiela
🔁M. Chrapekout: D. Ventura
84'
🔁T. Sutherlandout: K. Rostek
84'
86'
🔁N. Niskiout: J. Miazgowski

Line-ups

Ruch Chorzów
Coach: Waldemar Fornalik
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Coach: Tomasz Kafarski

Form going into Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Ruch Chorzów

I Liga

  • W3-0Odra Opole16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga

  • L0-1Polonia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Ruch Chorzów146441714+322
7Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki146352014+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

  • 27 April 2026Ruch Chorzów 2–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
  • 17 October 2025Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
  • 12 March 2022Ruch Chorzów 4–1 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiII Liga - East
  • 28 August 2021Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Ruch ChorzówII Liga - East

The result against the call

Ruch Chorzów beat Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–0. The model had made a win for Ruch Chorzów its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Chrapek 42' for Ruch Chorzów, D. Szczepan 55' for Ruch Chorzów.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ruch Chorzów a 28.8% chance to finish in the top two: 33.9% after a win, 25.1% after a draw, 20.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.9%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 30.2% going in: 39.3% after a win, 31.2% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Ruch Chorzów's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Ruch Chorzów win46%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win26%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.