25 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Referee: W. De Cremer
Full time5 – 2

Final score: Union St. Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Union St. Gilloise, 20% draw, 13% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Union St. Gilloise at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union St. Gilloise99%Draw1%Cercle Brugge0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽S. Ngoura (pen)
Nohim Chibani
40'
🔁N. Chibaniout: D. De Roeve
46'
48'
⚽M. Sylla (OG)
⚽R. Floruczassist: D. De Roeve
49'
57'
Valy Konaté
⚽M. Syllaassist: N. Havenaar
62'
63'
🔁T. Akinsolaout: Erick Nunes
64'
Dante Vanzeir
🔁D. Aquinoout: K. Rodriguez
66'
71'
🔁I. Diakiteout: T. Adaramola
71'
🔁A. Mannehout: L. Mondele
⚽E. Kakou (OG)
74'
76'
Hannes Van Der Bruggen
⚽R. Mofokengassist: L. Patris
80'
🔁R. Floruczout: A. Zorgane
81'
85'
🔁V. Konateout: G. Magnee
85'
🔁L. Le Rouxout: K. Kouassi
🔁L. Patrisout: R. Sykes
89'
🔁K. Van De Perreout: I. Pavlic
89'
•Nikki Havenaar
90+6'
90+2'
Steve Ngoura
⚽K. Rodriguezassist: R. Mofokeng
90'

Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

66%Possession34%
23Shots5
12On target2
13Corners1
2.02xG1.23

Goals against chances

Union St. Gilloise5 from 2.02 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cercle Brugge2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise 3-1-4-2
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 4N. ChibaniD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 20D. AquinoM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 38R. MofokengF
Substitutes
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 26R. SykesD
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 10A. Ait El HadjM
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 14I. PavlicM
  • 13K. RodriguezF
  • 32S. KeitaF
Coach: David Hubert
Cercle Brugge 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. CouckeG
  • 2I. DiakiteD
  • 5E. KakouD
  • 33R. CaicedoD
  • 12V. KonateD
  • 18L. Le RouxM
  • 28H. van der BruggenM
  • 30T. AkinsolaM
  • 20A. MannehM
  • 13D. VanzeirM
  • 9S. NgouraF
Substitutes
  • 21Y. LienardG
  • 15G. MagneeD
  • 45T. AdaramolaD
  • 82L. ColmanD
  • 8Erick NunesM
  • 42L. MondeleM
  • 71V. MartensM
  • 41K. KouassiF
  • 22L. MichalF
Coach: Lars Friis

Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

Union St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League

  • D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026

Cercle Brugge

Jupiler Pro League

  • L1-2Anderlecht10 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Charleroi19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Union St. Gilloise11920307+2329
16Cercle Brugge112361422-89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

  • 26 December 2025Cercle Brugge 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 22 November 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 8 December 2024Cercle Brugge 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 27 October 2024Union St. Gilloise 1–3 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 19 May 2024Cercle Brugge 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 7 April 2024Union St. Gilloise 2–3 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

  • R. Florucz50
  • R. Mofokeng42

Cercle Brugge

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union St. Gilloise beat Cercle Brugge 5–2. The model had made a win for Union St. Gilloise its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: S. Ngoura (penalty) 24' for Cercle Brugge, M. Sylla (own goal) 48' for Cercle Brugge, R. Florucz 49' for Union St. Gilloise, M. Sylla 62' for Union St. Gilloise, E. Kakou (own goal) 74' for Union St. Gilloise, R. Mofokeng 80' for Union St. Gilloise, K. Rodriguez 90' for Union St. Gilloise. Sent off: Dante Vanzeir (Cercle Brugge) 64'. On expected goals it finished 2.02–1.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union St. Gilloise a 30.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 31.9% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.9%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Cercle Brugge the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 7.4% going in: 3.6% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.7%.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 70% / 18% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 67% / 20% / 13%: the biggest move is Union St. Gilloise's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Union St. Gilloise win67%▼ −3
  2. Draw20%▲ +2
  3. Cercle Brugge win13%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.