25 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec Czech Liga prediction & result

FINEP Arena, Hradec Kralove
Referee: Dominik Stary
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Hradec Králové 1-2 FK Jablonec.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Hradec Králové, 29% draw, 29% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hradec Králové at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hradec Králové0%Draw4%FK Jablonec96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Sebastian·Nebyla (pen)
🔁David Ludvíčekout: Juraj Chvátal
45'
49'
⚽Sebastian·Nebylaassist: Antonín Růsek
🔁Ondřej Mihálikout: Mick Van Buren
54'
🔁Tom Sloncikout: Abdullahi Umar
54'
Tomáš Čvančara
59'
🔁František Čechout: Matej Valenta
63'
67'
🔁Filip Zorvanout: Dominik Holly
67'
🔁Garang Mawien Kuolout: Saidou Alioum Moubarak
67'
🔁Martin Cedidlaout: Dusan Pavlovic
⚽Tomáš Čvančaraassist: Daniel Horak
70'
•Abdullahi Umar
71'
77'
🔁Antonín Růsekout: Nelson Okeke
🔁Vladimír Daridaout: Daniel Trubač
80'
86'
🔁Sebastian·Nebylaout: Matej Polidar

Match stats — Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec

52%Possession48%
17Shots18
4On target7
2Corners9
2.34xG2.03

Goals against chances

Hradec Králové1 from 2.34 xGless than the chances were worth
FK Jablonec2 from 2.03 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hradec Králové 3-4-2-1
  • 12A. ZadražilG
  • 7J. UhrinčaťD
  • 4T. PetrášekD
  • 25F. ČechD
  • 2D. LudvíčekM
  • 16V. DaridaM
  • 11S. DancákM
  • 26D. HorákM
  • 70T. ČvančaraM
  • 19T. SlončíkM
  • 17O. MihálikF
Substitutes
  • 1P. VízekG
  • 10M. van BurenF
  • 9M. ValentaM
  • 20M. VágnerG
  • 24A. UmarF
  • 27D. TrubačM
  • 3F. MielkeD
  • 30J. ChvátalM
  • 33Rodrigo AbajasD
Coach: D. Horejs
FK Jablonec 4-2-3-1
  • 99K. MihelakG
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 4N. TekijaškiD
  • 57F. NovákD
  • 20J. SlámaD
  • 13R. SedláčekM
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 7V. TchanturishviliM
  • 8F. ZorvanM
  • 36G. KuolM
  • 9A. RůsekF
Substitutes
  • 16H. AhlM
  • 17S. AlioumF
  • 19J. ChramostaF
  • 1J. HanušG
  • 24D. HollýM
  • 22Roman HorákM
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 21M. PolidarM
  • 23E. SobolD
Coach: L. Kozel

Form going into Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec

Hradec Králové

Czech Liga

  • D0-0away to Slavia Praha17 October 2026
  • L2-4Artis10 October 2026

FK Jablonec

Czech Liga

  • L2-3Plzen18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Hradec Králové145361718-118
7FK Jablonec146351618-221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec

  • 10 May 2026FK Jablonec 1–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 29 November 2025Hradec Králové 2–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 2 August 2025FK Jablonec 2–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
  • 12 March 2025Hradec Králové 1–2 FK JablonecCup
  • 1 March 2025Hradec Králové 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 28 September 2024FK Jablonec 2–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec

Hradec Králové

GoalsAssists

  • T. Čvančara41
  • T. Slončík40

FK Jablonec

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Jablonec won 2–1 at Hradec Králové. The model had leaned towards a win for Hradec Králové at 42% and given a win for FK Jablonec 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sebastian·Nebyla (penalty) 34' for FK Jablonec, Sebastian·Nebyla 49' for FK Jablonec, Tomáš Čvančara 70' for Hradec Králové. On expected goals it finished 2.34–2.03.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hradec Králové a 69.2% chance to finish in the top ten: 76.7% after a win, 67.4% after a draw, 61.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.2%, 8 points lower than before the match.

For FK Jablonec the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 68.3% going in: 78.3% after a win, 68.2% after a draw, 62.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.3%, 10 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hradec Králové v FK Jablonec has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Hradec Králové's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Hradec Králové win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. FK Jablonec win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.