Gent vs Anderlecht Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Gent 4-0 Anderlecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Gent, 28% draw, 24% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Jupiler Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Gent at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gent vs Anderlecht
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Davy RoefG
- 3Maksim PaskotsiD
- 16Christian BurgessD
- 44Siebe Van der HeydenD
- 45Hyllarion GooreM
- 27Tibe De VliegerM
- 17Mathias DelorgeM
- 20Tiago AraújoM
- 37Abdelkahar KadriF
- 11Momodou SonkoF
- 75Ibrahima CisseF
- 30Kjell PeersmanG
- 31Bas EversG
- 57Matties VolckaertD
- 35Gilles De MeyerD
- 56Mamadou DialloD
- 39Abdul AyindeD
- 10Aimé OmgbaM
- 8László BénesM
- 22Leonardo LopesM
- 26Colin CoosemansG
- 50Kaïs BarryD
- 4Giulian BianconeD
- 27Léo PétrotD
- 5Oleg ReabciukD
- 29Mario StroeykensM
- 10Marten WinklerM
- 24Enric LlansanaM
- 19Thelo AasgaardM
- 83Tristan DegreefM
- 9Mihajlo CvetkovićF
- 66Michiel HaentjensG
- 32Justin HeekerenG
- 79Ali MaamarD
- 55Marco KanaM
- 6Ludwig AugustinssonD
- 18Lukáš AmbrosM
- 49Jayden Onia SekeF
- 30Ilias KoutsoupiasM
- 11Oliver AntmanF
Form going into Gent vs Anderlecht
Gent
Jupiler Pro League
- W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
Anderlecht
Jupiler Pro League
- W2-1away to Cercle Brugge10 October 2026
- W3-0Zulte Waregem19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gent | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 28 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs Gent
Anderlecht and Gent have met 7 times in the records we hold, Anderlecht has won 4 of them to Gent's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Gent won the last one 4–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 |
| Gent | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueGent 4–0 Anderlecht - 10 May 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueGent 1–1 Anderlecht - 12 Apr 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueAnderlecht 3–1 Gent - 18 Jan 2026
Jupiler Pro LeagueGent 4–2 Anderlecht - 15 Jan 2026
CupAnderlecht 1–0 Gent - 23 Sep 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueAnderlecht 1–0 Gent - 27 Apr 2025
Jupiler Pro LeagueGent 0–1 Anderlecht
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Gent concede 24% fewer than Anderlecht. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | 0.94 | 0.98 |
| Gent | 0.94 | 0.74 |
Leading scorers: Gent and Anderlecht
Gent
GoalsAssists
- I. Cisse40
Anderlecht
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gent beat Anderlecht 4–0. The model had made a win for Gent its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Kadri 14' for Gent, I. Cisse 73' for Gent, M. Sonko 77' for Gent, M. Volckaert 81' for Gent. On expected goals it finished 1.89–1.55.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gent a 85.8% chance to finish in the top four: 89.7% after a win, 84.0% after a draw, 80.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.7%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.
For Anderlecht the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 19.3% going in: 26.5% after a win, 18.9% after a draw, 16.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.0%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.